934
FXUS62 KJAX 220537
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
137 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON SUNDAY AT VQQ. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY BEGINNING AROUND NOON
ON SUNDAY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FL. ACTIVITY WILL
THEN PROGRESS INLAND, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VICINITY SHOWERS AFTER
17Z AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT
GNV AFTER 20Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL THEN SHIFT WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND REGION BY 00Z. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AT THE SSI AND SGJ
COASTAL TERMINALS, WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY 15Z, WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE INLAND TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE, FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING TO EASTERLY BY 18Z, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TOWARDS 20Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNSET, WITH
SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS BEFORE 03Z MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
TONIGHT: ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS SE GA AND
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH PWATS LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES AND EXPECT
ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS
EVENING, WHILE MORE SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND NE
FL ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MEETS UP
WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT DUE TO THE SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTION LESS THAN
10 MPH. CONVECTION SHOULD START TO FADE AFTER SUNSET AND COME TO
AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER
70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS INLAND SE GA.
SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION WITH AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW AND EXPECT A DRIER
AIRMASS TO REMAIN ACROSS SE GA WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS
ACROSS NE FL WITH PWATS SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS SE
GA AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS NE FL. THE WELL
INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, BUT STILL REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S INLAND WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100-105F
RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
NE FL ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
MAIN THREATS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT, SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES STICKING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MONDAY
WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE AREA AND WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. THE WINDS COMING IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING IN
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS SEA-BREEZES CONVERGE INLAND. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST. PEAK
HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 95-102 DEGREE RANGE.
MONDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE UNTIL ABOUT MIDWEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL LOWER THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA UNTIL
MID WEEK AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AT INLAND LOCATIONS. THE ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, INCREASING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S AT INLAND
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL LIFT ITS AXIS
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMING
SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURF/BREAKERS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE, AS
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS IS
REPLACED BY AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 94 70 94 70 / 20 0 10 0
SSI 88 77 88 76 / 10 10 10 0
JAX 92 73 92 72 / 20 10 20 0
SGJ 89 74 89 74 / 30 10 20 0
GNV 94 72 95 72 / 50 10 30 0
OCF 94 73 95 72 / 50 10 30 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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