951
FXUS62 KJAX 221057
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
657 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1024 MILLIBARS)
CENTERED BETWEEN THE CAROLINA COAST AND BERMUDA. ALOFT..."HEAT
WAVE" RIDGING WAS POSITIONED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH THIS
FEATURE CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN SIZE AND NOW CONTROLLING THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION. LATEST
GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS PERSISTS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10, WHERE PWAT VALUES WERE IN THE 1.25 - 1.5
INCH RANGE. MEANWHILE, PWATS WERE A LITTLE CLOSER TO LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10, WHERE VALUES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 1.5 - 1.75 INCH RANGE. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
OUR AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 70-75
DEGREE RANGE INLAND, WITH TEMPERATURES AT COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE
75-80 DEGREE RANGE AT 07Z.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
EXPANSIVE RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MIGRATE A LITTLE NORTHWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TONIGHT,
PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN A DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW REGIME.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST, WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ADVECTING A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER PWAT VALUES
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL TODAY. NEAR CLIMO MOISTURE VALUES
MAY OFFSET STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND. MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AND THE
LAKE GEORGE BREEZE MAY RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE AND PALATKA. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR, WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE LIKELY KEEPING MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA DRY AGAIN TODAY. AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY PULSE AND BECOME STRONG LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AS
CONVECTION INTERACTS WITH A PINNED GULF COAST SEA BREEZE, BUT A
HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE TO
THE WEST OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TOWARDS SUNSET.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AN UNSEASONABLY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL
ALLOW INLAND HIGHS TO SOAR TO THE MID 90S, WHILE EARLY DEVELOPMENT
OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE KEEPS COASTAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100.
CONVECTION WILL MOVE WEST OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER AROUND OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, WITH FAIR SKIES THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREADING OUR AREA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AN ONSHORE BREEZE COULD
DRIVE AN ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWER ONSHORE TOWARDS SUNRISE ON
MONDAY, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. LOWS WILL
FALL TO THE LOWER 70S INLAND, RANGING TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AT
COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS DURING THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY AIR (PWATS <1.5")
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, LEADING TO LOWER POPS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE TO MOVE WELL INLAND ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS. AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZES MEET. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BRING POPS <20% FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR INTO SE GA. CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY
DWINDLES FURTHER ON TUESDAY, WITH POPS <20% SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER/MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS AND
UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES, WITH HIGHS A BIT HIGHER ON TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S ALONG
THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 70S INLAND. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP
OUT IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO MIDWEEK. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
MOVING INLAND WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ALONG INLAND LOCATIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL
COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON. AFTER MIDWEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA FROM
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE BROUGHT
TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA, BRINGING AN UPTICK IN POPS DURING THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 90S. WARMER TEMPS OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL MAY BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING AROUND NOON ON SUNDAY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
IN NORTHEAST FL. ACTIVITY WILL THEN PROGRESS INLAND, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE VICINITY SHOWERS AFTER 17Z AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS
AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT GNV AFTER 20Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL THEN SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND REGION BY 00Z.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AT THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS, WHERE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY 15Z, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS
AFTER 18Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING
TO EASTERLY BY 18Z, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS TOWARDS 20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AFTER SUNSET, WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS BEFORE 03Z
MONDAY. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT VQQ LATE TONIGHT IN THE 07-11Z
TIME FRAME, OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THIS WEEK. ONSHORE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RIP CURRENTS: PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL TO KEEP A LOWER END MODERATE RISK IN PLACE
AT AREA BEACHES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS TO
CREATE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES INLAND, WITH FAIR VALUES
FORECAST AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. EASTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ELEVATED MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL CREATE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES EACH DAY
INLAND, WITH MARGINALLY HIGH VALUES POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA,
WHILE FAIR VALUES GENERALLY PREVAIL AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. AN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE, MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 94 70 94 70 / 20 0 10 0
SSI 88 77 88 76 / 10 10 10 0
JAX 92 73 92 72 / 20 10 20 0
SGJ 89 74 89 74 / 30 10 20 0
GNV 94 72 95 72 / 50 10 30 0
OCF 94 73 95 72 / 50 10 30 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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