463
FXUS62 KJAX 230527
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
127 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AT VQQ. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IS
POSSIBLE AT JAX, CRG, AND GNV AROUND SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE OVERNIGHT TAFS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP NEAR SGJ AND CRG ON MONDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY COVERAGE AT THIS
TIME. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD
ACROSS I-75 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH
ENOUGH TO INDICATE VICINITY SHOWER COVERAGE AT GNV DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT WEST OF THE
SUWANNEE RIVER BY SUNSET ON MONDAY EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS AT THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL
TERMINALS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY 15Z, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS AFTER 17Z. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS BY 14Z AT THE INLAND TERMINALS, FOLLOWED
BY SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 19Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
TONIGHT: ANY STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER
INLAND AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WITH ALL ACTIVITY ENDING AROUND SUNSET
ACROSS THE NE FL/SE GA REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME PATCHY
INLAND FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE, MAINLY ACROSS INLAND SE GA.
LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
MONDAY: LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US SINKS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS WITH PWATS LESS
THAN 1.50 INCHES AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS
DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST AND WILL PUSH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WELL INLAND ONCE
AGAIN AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ALONG ITS PROGRESS, MAINLY ACROSS INLAND NE FL SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S, ALONG WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 100-105F RANGE ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AS RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE.
THE DRIER AIR WILL DECREASE AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES TO 10-20% BY
TUESDAY. ONSHORE WINDS COMING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WELL
INLAND EACH DAY PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS STARTING IN THE
MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTH OF HWY-301, SHIFTING FURTHER
INLAND IN THE AFTERNOONS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S AT INLAND AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE
95-103 DEGREE RANGE EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE
COAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES BUT WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL LOWER THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY IN THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
THE ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THOUGH
THE PERIOD, IT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO FILTER BACK INTO
THE AREA AND SLOWLY INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS MOISTURE
RETURNS, SKY COVER WILL INCREASE AND HELP KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THIS WEEK.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SURF/BREAKERS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE,
AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE IN
THE SURF ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN OVER THE AREA, SLOWLY DECREASING
AFTERNOON RAIN AND STORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TRENDING UPWARD AS TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING THE ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE WELL INLAND
THROUGH THE PERIOD CREATING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR NEAR I-75. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
TODAY, BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE SCATTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY ARE POOR
TO FAIR ALONG THE COAST WITH GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSIONS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. DISPERSIONS IMPROVE OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY WITH
DISPERSIONS BECOMING HIGH AT INLAND LOCATIONS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 95 71 97 72 / 10 0 10 10
SSI 88 75 90 76 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 92 71 94 73 / 10 0 10 10
SGJ 88 74 89 73 / 10 0 10 10
GNV 95 71 97 72 / 20 0 10 10
OCF 94 71 96 72 / 30 0 20 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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