827
FXUS62 KJAX 231242
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
842 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 837 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS DIURNAL CONVECTION. PWATS REMAIN ONLY AROUND
1.5 INCHES OR SO, WITH DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT ACROSS INLAND SE GA.
STILL EXPECT THE EASTERLY FLOW TO PUSH THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA
BREEZE WELL INLAND ACROSS ALL OF NE FL/SE GA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS EXPECTED, MAINLY
ACROSS NE FL TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WELL INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F EXPECTED AGAIN,
WHILE THE ATLANTIC COAST/BEACHES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1023 MILLIBARS)
CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. ALOFT..."HEAT WAVE"
RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS.
LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS PERSISTS FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR, WHERE PWATS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 1.3 - 1.5 INCH RANGE. PWATS WERE STILL A LITTLE
BELOW LATE JUNE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10, WHERE
VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1.5 - 1.75 INCH RANGE. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER
POCKET OF DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM FROM OUR AREA
OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS, WHERE PWATS WERE AROUND OR BELOW 1.5
INCHES. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL AREA-WIDE, WITH CALM WINDS AT MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO FALL TO
THE 70-75 RANGE AS OF 07Z, WHILE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WAS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND CALM WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHES OF FOG TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S.-301 AND I-95 CORRIDORS IN SOUTHEAST GA
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPANSIVE RIDGING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN
IN PLACE LOCALLY. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE GULF
STREAM WATERS WILL ADVECT WESTWARD TODAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THIS
MOISTURE GRADIENT PROGRESSES ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MOISTURE
GRADIENT AND THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR INLAND LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR, WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR,
WHERE SOME MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MAY OCCUR AS CONVECTION
INTERACTS WITH A PINNED GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER OUR AREA WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS RATHER
TAME INTENSITY-WISE AND LIKELY BRIEF IN DURATION, WITH DRY
WEATHER OTHERWISE PREVAILING FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR, WHILE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR AREAS
EAST OF U.S.-301, EXCEPT UPPER 80S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE DRY
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN DEWPOINTS CRASHING THROUGH THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA, KEEPING MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100. HEAT INDICES ELSEWHERE WILL
GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER BY
SUNSET THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY, THE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE VERY ISOLATED AT BEST,
WITH FAIR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILING THROUGHOUT OUR REGION. LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO AROUND 70 AT MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY, WHILE A LIGHT BREEZE AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS KEEPS LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK,
MAINTAINING ONSHORE FLOW. DRIER AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND CONTINUING MUCH LOWER THAN
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. THE ONLY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE MARION
COUNTY AND WEST OF I-75 CORRIDOR WITH THE SEA BREEZE MERGER. THE
DRY PATTERN COMES TO AN END ON WEDNESDAY AS A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL. THE LOW WILL TREK WSW ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SHIFT OVER THE FL
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN ALOFT,
LEADING TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SEA BREEZES ON WEDNESDAY. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN
ALOFT, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THE MAIN
HAZARDS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S FURTHER INLAND.
INCREASING MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL (108 F). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
A WETTER PATTERN TAKES HOLD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW OVER FL PENINSULA GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS WNW INTO GA/AL THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION CAUSING
THE FLOW TO SHIFT FROM ONSHORE TO WESTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWATS 1.7-2 IN.) AND LINGERING UPPER SUPPORT
WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO NUMEROUS. HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 90S WITH MAX HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-105 F RANGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR SGJ AND CRG THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD ACROSS
I-75 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
INDICATE VICINITY SHOWER COVERAGE AT GNV DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT WEST OF THE SUWANNEE
RIVER BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS AT THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY 15Z, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS
AFTER 17Z. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 5
KNOTS BY 14Z AT THE INLAND TERMINALS, FOLLOWED BY SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 19Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, EXCEPT FOR
THE USUAL MVFR FOG AT VQQ FROM THE 07-11Z TIME FRAME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WITH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST, MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WEAK
TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES CONTINUING
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK, WITH
STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS OF 2 TO
4 FEET WILL PREVAIL BOTH NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
RIP CURRENTS: ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY OCEAN
SWELL TO CREATE A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
EASTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK,
WITH PERIODS OF NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS TO CREATE GOOD DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH MARGINALLY HIGH VALUES
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. FAIR DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS. HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGH VALUES POSSIBLE AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BY WEDNESDAY. AN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW INLAND HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL TO THE 35-40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 96 72 99 72 / 10 10 10 10
SSI 88 76 90 76 / 10 10 10 10
JAX 93 72 95 73 / 10 10 10 10
SGJ 90 73 91 73 / 20 10 10 10
GNV 95 71 97 72 / 20 10 10 10
OCF 95 71 97 72 / 30 10 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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