415
FXUS62 KJAX 231751
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
131 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MAIN CHANCES ACROSS INLAND NE
FL, WHERE POPS ARE ONLY IN THE 15-25% RANGE SINCE PWATS ARE STILL
ONLY AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. ANY CONVECTION OVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD END OR PUSH
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNSET.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA ACROSS GA/SC AND EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO DEVELOP
AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME NEAR CALM TOWARDS MORNING. UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY INLAND FOG TO DEVELOP
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, WHILE LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE
70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
TUE...HOT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NE FL. EASTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS THE HOTTEST MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL NEAR 105-107 DEG WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST, HIGHS WILL
NEAR 90 WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100. AT THIS TIME, LOOKS
LIKE JUST SHY OF LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS (HEAD ADVISORY 108 OR MORE). INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THERE IS A LOW 15-20% OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A STORM
ACROSS SE GA AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY OF NE FL AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. RAINFALL
POTENTIAL TAPPERS OFF INLAND BY MIDNIGHT WITH MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S, NEAR CLIMO FOR MANY WITH A FEW COASTAL
SHOWERS THROUGH DAYBREAK WED.
WED...CONTINUED HOT WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WITH A RISK OF A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL FL APPROACHES THE FL ATLANTIC COAST. ENE STEERING FLOW
WILL BRING MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO COASTAL AREAS,
WITH RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING INLAND AND COVERAGE INCREASING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY. THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK BETWEEN 400-200 MB INTO WED EVENING WITH THE
LOCAL AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE
UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND PROMOTE HAIL IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS. AT THIS TIME, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)
HAS THE LOCAL AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY. RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DECREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES
DIRECTLY OVER THE FL PENINSULA. WITH INCREASED STORMINESS AND
CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER
COMPARED TO TUESDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 90S
INLAND TO NEAR 90 COAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
A WET PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST REGION THU-SAT WHICH WILL
ESTABLISH SW FLOW AND INCREASE MOIST AND UNSTABLE GULF AIR ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN LATE
SAT INTO SUN, BUT LINGERING DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH SW STEERING FLOW, ANTICIPATE MORNING CONVECTION MOVING
INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST REGION THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS TOWARD THE
I-95 CORRIDOR EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STORMS PRESS OFFSHORE
INTO THE EVENING, WHILE RESURRECTING TOWARD THE GULF COAST EARLY
EACH MORNING. TEMPERATURES TREND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT
PUSHES INLAND ACROSS NE FL, WITH COVERAGE NOT EVEN HIGH ENOUGH FOR
VCSH EXCEPT AT GNV THROUGH ABOUT 21Z OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
EASTERLY WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET, THEN WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECT THE USUAL MVFR FOG AT VQQ FROM 07-11Z,
WHILE SOME LOW MVFR FOG CHANCES BELOW 25% ARE SHOWING UP ON THE
NBM AT JAX/CRG/GNV JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT STILL LIKELY TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
CU CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN THE 2000-2500 FT RANGE BY 14Z ONCE AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER OUR LOCAL
WATERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS WEAK TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES CONTINUING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. CHANCES FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK, WITH STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH SURF/BREAKERS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE, AS WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE IN THE SURF
ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 99 73 97 / 10 20 20 20
SSI 76 90 75 90 / 10 10 20 20
JAX 72 96 73 95 / 10 10 20 20
SGJ 73 91 73 90 / 10 10 10 20
GNV 71 98 72 97 / 10 10 10 40
OCF 71 97 71 95 / 10 20 10 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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