207
FXUS62 KJAX 041808
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
208 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT THIS TIME WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINES/ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE NEAR AND JUST WEST OF I-95. WINDS ARE MAINLY NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY EXCEPT FOR A BIT MORE VARIABLE FLOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL WHERE A WEAK TROUGH IS LOCATED. A BROAD WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED SOME 150 MILES EAST OF JAX PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL FL. MODELS SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MEANDERING OR
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OR NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE THE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL PUSHES A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
RADAR SHOWS A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM INLAND NORTHEAST
FL INTO SOUTHEAST GA. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BLOSSOM AND PUSH SOUTHWARD AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION OF RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND WEST OF I-95 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS, EXCEPT FOR
INLAND NORTHEAST FL NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WE STILL CAN'T RULE
OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE IN THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS
TONIGHT VERY MILD IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AND PROBABLY LESS THAN WHAT WE HAD THIS MORNING, BUT
AREAS OF STRATUS MAY BE PREVALENT AGAIN.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER, PERHAPS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION, LOCATED IN THE ATLANTIC OFF THE NE FL AND GA COASTS ON
SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE LOW TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY, FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE NNE WITH WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY. BEING ON THE "DRIER" SIDE OF THE LOW, DRIER
NORTHERLY AIR ADVECTING INTO SE GA COULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO
SCATTERED WHEREAS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWATS 2+ IN.) REMAINS
OVER NE FL. LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY OVER
NE FL MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10. MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND
FILTERS BACK INTO SE GA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS TO WSW ON SUNDAY SENDING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW STRONG THE LOW COULD BECOME BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL BUT IT'S LIKELY TO REMAIN EITHER AT OR BELOW
DEPRESSION LEVEL. MAIN LOCAL IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH ELEVATED SURF/RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WEAKENS AND OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH ON MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN RETURNS TO BEING MAINLY DIURNAL SEA BREEZE
DRIVEN WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY ALONG THE
INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZES. RETURNING SUBSIDENCE WILL SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. GENERALLY WSW FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE
GULF SEA BREEZE BEING DOMINANT AND PINNING THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
TO THE COAST. MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS STORM COVERAGE WILL CAUSE
TEMPS SOAR INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 90S INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. PEAK
HEAT INDICES COULD RISE TO AROUND 105 F AND POTENTIALLY REACH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108 F).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 2500-3500 FT IN THE AREA AT
THIS TIME WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LOCATED GENERALLY WEST OF A
LINE FROM SSI TO JAX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTERLY BUT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY FIRE TOWARD JAX, VQQ, AND CRG IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED AT GNV AFTER 19Z WHEN WE
PLACED IN A TEMPO GROUP. OTHERWISE, FOR NOW HAVE OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS AND VCTS FOR TAF SITES UNTIL LATER AFTN. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL FADE TONIGHT AND MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG SATURDAY FROM ABOUT 06Z-12Z. ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING BEGINNING AROUND 14Z-15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER WELL OFFSHORE WHILE DRIFTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY
ACROSS GEORGIA WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
MONITORING THIS SYSTEM TO SEE IF THE LOW WILL BECOME A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION. AS THE LOW DEPARTS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS GEORGIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW-END MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CURRENTLY
BUT WILL BE INCREASING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS INCREASE AND SURF BUILDS. PROBABLY STILL HAVE LONGSHORE CURRENTS
FLOWING NORTHWARD FROM THE PAST WIND FLOW REGIME, BUT IS FORECAST
TO SWITCH TO FLOWING SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS NOW FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 89 72 90 / 20 50 30 60
SSI 77 84 75 88 / 20 60 40 50
JAX 74 89 72 91 / 20 60 30 70
SGJ 74 87 73 89 / 20 60 30 60
GNV 72 88 72 91 / 20 70 30 70
OCF 74 88 73 88 / 30 80 40 70
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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