389
FXUS62 KJAX 050604
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
204 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
..HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY SE GA BEACHES
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
BREEZIER AT THE COAST TODAY WITH WAVES OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T'STORMS THIS MORNING SPIRALING INLAND AROUND TROPICAL
DEPRESSION #3, WHICH WAS STILL MEANDERING EAST OF THE FIRST COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT (PWAT) FALLING BELOW 1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR NW GA
ZONES FROM ROUGHLY APPLING TO COFFEE COUNTIES, WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE
MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES CONTINUED TO STREAM NE TO SW
ACROSS THE SE GA GOLDEN ISLES AND ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY. THROUGH TODAY, TD #3 WILL SLOWLY TRACK NNW TOWARD THE SC
COAST, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MIDDAY WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHIFTING
INLAND AND CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH STORM MOTION TRANSITION TO MORE NNE TO SSW AS
TD #3 BEGINS THAT NORTHWARD TRACK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS YESTERDAY NEAR
3-4 INCHES. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THESE ZONES AS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING RAINFALL TODAY
DUE TO MORE SATURATED GROUNDS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY. DRIER 700-500 MB AIR ACROSS SE GA AND FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR INFILTRATES FROM THE
NORTH INTO LATE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL TEND TO DECREASE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN NATURE, BUT DRIER AIR
COLD MAKE FOR A FEW MORE ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAPSE RATES A LITTLE
STEEPER AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. SHEAR IS STILL VERY LIMITED AND LESS THAN 15 KTS, SO
ORGANIZED SEVERE IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK NW TO WSW AS THE CENTER OF TD #3 APPROACHES SC, WITH LESS
COASTAL SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. THERE COLD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND LONE STORM
TRYING TO DRIFT INLAND FROM THE GULF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
OVERALL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME INLAND FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST TO LOWER
90S WELL INLAND, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE VALUES. MUGGY AND
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND TO
UPPER 70S COAST.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY
FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL SWEEP INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WHILE SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW BRINGS IN MOISTURE OFF THE GULF ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. PWATS WILL BE HIGH, ABOVE 2 INCHES, PROMOTING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON MONDAY, HOWEVER PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IS A BIT LOWER OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS DRIER AIR GETS
PULLED IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 90S, HEATING UP A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY INTO THE MID 90S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD,
WITH THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE BEING OVER INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER
90S AREA-WIDE, EVEN AT THE BEACHES AS SW FLOW PINS THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SPOTTY EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WERE SHIFTING SOUTH AND FADING NEAR
SGJ WHILE ANOTHER BAND OF COASTAL SHOWERS WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COAST, WEST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
3. PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS AS BREEZY NNE WINDS INCREASE AT THE COAST TO 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS NEARING 20-25 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHIFT INLAND TOWARD THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 20Z. UPDATED ALL PROB30S TO VCTS WITH RAIN CHANCES >60% AT
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE ADDED AS
RADAR TRENDS BECOME BETTER RESOLVED. CONVECTION FADES INLAND NEAR
GNV AFTER 00Z WITH LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS BUT LOWER RAIN CHANCES
AFTER 06Z WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 EAST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTH NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE EVENING AS
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRACKS FARTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL WATERS. THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE NEAR SHORE GA WATERS.
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL MOVE INLAND EARLY SUNDAY AND LINGER
OVER THE CAROLINAS AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH TUESDAY. A FRONT WILL
LINGER ACROSS GEORGIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MID-WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WAS HEADLINED TODAY FOR SE
GA BEACHES WITH STRONGER LONGSHORE CURRENTS AND ELEVATED BREAKERS
NEAR 3-4 FT AT TIMES. A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES FOR NE
FL BEACH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 71 90 73 / 40 20 40 0
SSI 87 75 89 77 / 60 30 40 10
JAX 89 72 93 75 / 60 30 60 10
SGJ 86 73 91 75 / 50 30 60 10
GNV 89 71 92 72 / 60 30 70 10
OCF 89 73 90 74 / 70 40 80 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ450-
470.
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