046
FXUS62 KJAX 051442
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1042 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
BIG PICTURE VIEW SHOWS T.S. CHANTAL, DRIFTING NORTHWARD, NOW
LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF JAX. FLOW IS NORTH-
NORTHEAST UP TO 15-20 KT FROM SFC-3 KM PER THE 12Z SOUNDING, A FEW
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND EXPECT THE TREND OF
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST
OF TODAY. CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY DUE TO
DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT AND WEAKER INSTABILITY. MODIFIED JAX
SOUNDING YIELDS MLCAPE OF ABOUT 1400 J/KG, WHICH AGREES FAIRLY
WELL WITH SOME OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY TOWARD 2000 J/KG OVER INLAND
NORTHEAST FL AREAS LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE, WE MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE POPS AND CONTINUED TO SHOW BEST CHANCES IN THE
50-70 PERCENT RANGE FOR INLAND AREAS OF NORTHEAST FL WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. SOME HIGHER COVER
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FOR MARION COUNTY AGAIN TODAY,
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXIST. MUCH LOWER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED NORTHWEST OF WAYCROSS AND ALMA AREAS
TODAY, WHERE PWATS THERE WILL BE DOWN TO ABOUT 1.35 INCHES, OR
CLOSE TO 25 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED IN THE EVENING, THEN DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED AT BEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S COASTAL TO
LOWER 90S WELL INLAND.
FOR THE MARINE FORECAST, HAVE TRENDED A BIT STRONGER FOR WINDS AND
SEAS GIVEN THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. BUOYS SHOW 4-5 FT SEAS NEARSHORE
AND WINDS AT 41008 WERE 21G27KT RECENTLY. THIS SUPPORTS EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT OFFSHORE WATERS OF NORTHEAST FL. WITH THE BUOYS SHOWING
HIGHER SEAS THAN GUIDANCE AND BASED ON PRELIM REPORTS FROM LIFEGUARDS,
WE UPPED THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH FOR NORTHEAST FL BEACHES.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY
FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL SWEEP INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WHILE SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW BRINGS IN MOISTURE OFF THE GULF ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. PWATS WILL BE HIGH, ABOVE 2 INCHES, PROMOTING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON MONDAY, HOWEVER PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IS A BIT LOWER OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS DRIER AIR GETS
PULLED IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 90S, HEATING UP A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY INTO THE MID 90S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD,
WITH THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE BEING OVER INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER
90S AREA-WIDE, EVEN AT THE BEACHES AS SW FLOW PINS THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 90S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
BRIEF CIG RESTRICTIONS AT VQQ EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. OTHERWISE, THE FLOW IS MORE NORTHERLY TODAY DUE
TO T.S. CHANTAL LOCATED NEAR 30.9N, 79W (DRIFTING NORTH), BUT THE
LOW LEVELS IN THE LOCAL AREA REMAIN MOIST TO GENERATE SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CUMULUS DURING THE DAY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. CURRENTLY, ONLY SPOTTY ISOLATED SHOWERS LOCATED NEAR SSI
MOVING SOUTHWARD PROVIDING ONLY BRIEF RAINFALL AND SOME LOWER
CIGS. WITH FURTHER DAYTIME HEATING, MORE ROBUST SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME VSBY AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS. WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS TIME, BUT
MAY NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS AT SOME POINT THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTN. CONVECTION WILL FADE THIS EVENING BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST FOR COASTAL AREAS. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH-
NORTHEAST UP TO 8-15 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 EAST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTH NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE EVENING AS
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRACKS FARTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL WATERS. THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE NEAR SHORE GA WATERS.
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL MOVE INLAND EARLY SUNDAY AND LINGER
OVER THE CAROLINAS AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH TUESDAY. A FRONT WILL
LINGER ACROSS GEORGIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MID-WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WAS HEADLINED TODAY FOR SE
GA BEACHES WITH STRONGER LONGSHORE CURRENTS AND ELEVATED BREAKERS
NEAR 3-4 FT AT TIMES. A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES FOR NE
FL BEACH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 71 90 73 / 40 20 40 0
SSI 86 74 89 77 / 40 30 40 10
JAX 87 73 93 75 / 50 30 60 10
SGJ 85 73 91 75 / 60 30 60 10
GNV 87 71 92 72 / 70 30 70 10
OCF 88 73 90 74 / 70 40 80 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ450-470.
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