877
FXUS62 KJAX 051812
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
212 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
T.S. CHANTAL CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, LOCATED SOME
175 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAYPORT AT 2 PM. THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING
VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY, OUR FLOW CONTINUES
TO BE NORTH- NORTHEAST ABOUT 15-20 KT THROUGH ABOUT 12-15 KFT
BASED ON THE LATEST JAX VWP. GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM ABOUT 2 PM THROUGH 8 PM OVER THE INLAND AREAS AS
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AND THERMAL TROUGHING OVER INLAND AREAS
BOOSTS LOW LEVEL LIFT TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO FAR, MLCAPE ANALYSIS VALUES ON TRACK WITH
FORECASTS OF 1000-1500 J/KG BUT WILL PROBABLY ACHIEVE POCKETS
CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG FOR INLAND NORTHEAST FL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS ELEVATED TO ABOUT 1100 AT 1 PM, BUT
WHETHER A STORM CAN GET STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A STRONG
DOWNBURST IS UNCERTAIN. IF ANY, THE MAIN STRONG WIND THREAT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA AND NEAR AND WEST OF I-75
CORRIDOR. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND IN THE EVENING
BEFORE GENERALLY DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS CHANTAL DRIFTS NORTH AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS BUT LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST FL. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH SKIES TENDING TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SUNDAY, TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK NORTH
TO THE CAROLINA'S, PULLING MOISTURE IN OVER THE AREA AS IT GOES.
HIGHER PWAT VALUES OF 2" ARE ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WITH PWAT VALUES OF 1.7-1.8" OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THIS WILL AID
IN BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS BEGINNING IN
THE MORNING, INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 90S
OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S OVER
THE COAST AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S, STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST.
MONDAY, DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTERS IN OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN
THE EARLY MORNING, DROPPING PWAT VALUES JUST BELOW 2". CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND STORMS WILL START IN THE MORNING OVER INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES OF 30-50% AREA WIDE BY THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND
NEAR I-75 WHERE SEA-BREEZES CONVERGE IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND IN INLAND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
OVER INLAND AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER IN
COASTAL AREAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
TUESDAY WILL HAVE SIMILAR WEATHER AS MONDAY, WITH DRIER AIR OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS ALONG
I-95 IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK TO ,
WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND
SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS
WHERE SEA-BREEZES CONVERGE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AT INLAND
LOCATIONS, STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
OCCASIONAL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR SO FAR IN THE SHOWERS AT THE TAF
SITES, BUT GNV YET TO SEE ANYTHING. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL STORMS REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR GNV STARTING 19Z. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD, WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE STILL AROUND 02Z-03Z, BUT MOSTLY
DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CIGS OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION. SFC WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 8-14 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT, THOUGH LOWER SPEEDS FOR GNV AND VQQ. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE FOR GNV AND VQQ LATE TONIGHT. WINDS START OUT
LIGHT WESTERLY ON SUNDAY WITH VFR CIGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
WINDS AND SEAS ARE UP TO 15-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
WATERS AND SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT, WITH SOME 7 FT SEAS LIKELY NEAR AND
BEYOND 20 NM. GRAYS REEF BUOY, 41008, SHOWED 23G27 KT WITH SEAS
OF 7 FT RECENTLY. NWPS SEAS ARE LAGGING BEHIND A BIT SO TWEAKED UP
1-2 FT BASED ON CURRENT 41112 AND 41117 READINGS. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHEAST GA WATERS, AND EFFECTIVE INTO
TONIGHT, WITH EXERCISE CAUTION FOR PART OF THE NORTHEAST FL WATERS
AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. TS CHANTAL
SLOWLY MOVES INLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE CAROLINAS, AND
LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH TUESDAY. A FRONT
WILL LINGER ACROSS GEORGIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MID-WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS (DIRECTED
SOUTH) ARE INCREASING WITH SURF HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 2-4 FT. FOR
SURE, THE RISK WILL BE ELEVATED ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE RIP CURRENT
CHANNELS FROM TODAY AND REMAINING SURF OF ABOUT 2-3 FT.
FIRE WEATHER
TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE MAINLY
FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA SOUTH OF I-10. ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
HAVE CREATED HIGHER DISPERSION VALUES OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY
BUT WILL BECOME FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY THROUGH
MID- WEEK. CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL DRY OUT A BIT AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, LEAVING THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND STORMS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 92 73 96 / 20 30 0 30
SSI 74 90 77 92 / 30 30 0 20
JAX 73 93 75 95 / 30 40 10 40
SGJ 74 91 75 92 / 30 50 10 40
GNV 73 93 72 93 / 30 60 10 50
OCF 73 90 74 91 / 40 70 10 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-
166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ450-470.
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