157
FXUS62 KJAX 061141
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
741 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SW STEERING FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY BETWEEN CHANTAL LIFTING NNE OF THE
REGION AND A MEAN LAYER 1000-500 MB RIDGE AXIS LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FL STRAIGHTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2 INCHES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NE FL WHILE DRIER AIR IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE SW SIDE OF CHANTAL WILL LIMIT
RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN THE 20-30% RANGE. THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF > 60% TODAY WILL FOCUS ACROSS OUR NE FL
ZONES WHERE A 850 MB WAKE TROUGH AXIS FROM CHANTAL LINGERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON UNDER SW STEERING FLOW. EXPECT A RESURRECTION OF
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS STORMS APPROACH THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WHERE PINNED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS, WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND BULK SHEAR < 15 KTS DO NOT FAVOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY,
BUT A STRONGER STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARIES MERGE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN HIGHWAY 301 AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF NE
FL WHERE WET DOWNBURSTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
CONVECTION WILL PRESS OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT EXCEPT BACK TOWARD THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY WHERE SW FLOW COULD PUSH A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORM
INLAND TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARMING TREND TODAY WITH HIGHS NEARING THE
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS SE GA AND THE FL INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. SW
FLOW ALSO PUSHES THE HEAT TO THE BEACHES WITH HIGHS NEARING 90.
THE 'COOLER' LOCATION TODAY WILL BE THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY
WHERE MORNING CLOUD COVER FROM GULF CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR
90 TO UPPER 80S. DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY NORTH OF
I-10, DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN DEW PTS IN THE UPPER 60S CREATING
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95-100 DEG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
THE 70S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S AREA-WIDE, EVEN AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINS PINNED TO
THE COAST. INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST ABOVE 95 DEGREES BOTH AFTERNOONS, HOWEVER WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS, HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY MAX OUT AT 100-105 DEGREES.
A FEW ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
MOISTURE INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS
AREA-WIDE AS SEA BREEZES AND BOUNDARIES INTERACT. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS WELL,
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
VFR CIGS AROUND AT THIS TIME WITH MID CLOUD DECK INLAND NORTHEAST
FL. SHOULD SEE A SCATTERED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, BUT MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY FORECAST TOWARD GNV
AND POSSIBLY SGJ THIS AFTERNOON. MORE LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE FOR
SSI SO ONLY HAVE VCSH THERE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR GNV AND SGJ WHERE PROBS ARE HIGHER, AND THEN PROB30
GROUPS FOR JAX, CRG, AND VQQ FOR NOW. SOME ENHANCED CHANCES AROUND
GNV BEFORE 18Z TODAY SO HAVE TEMPO FOR A SHOWER AND MVFR CIG 14Z-18Z,
BASED SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION STILL LOOKS
TO END AROUND THE 01Z-02Z TIME FRAME AND THEN PREVAILING VFR CIGS
AFTERWARD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO BEGIN TODAY BUT BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY
OR SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN SHIFT ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTN FROM THE
SEA BREEZE AT SSI, CRG, AND SGJ.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY CHANTAL TRACKS
FARTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS GEORGIA.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND MONDAY FOR ALL
SE GA AND NE FL BEACHES, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AND ONSHORE WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 74 96 74 / 30 20 30 10
SSI 89 76 91 77 / 30 10 20 10
JAX 93 74 93 75 / 40 20 40 10
SGJ 90 74 91 75 / 50 20 40 10
GNV 92 72 92 72 / 70 20 50 10
OCF 90 74 90 74 / 70 20 50 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page