291
FXUS62 KJAX 061401
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1000 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FORECAST AREA IN A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WEAKENING
CHANTAL OVER NC AT 9 AM AND WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND OVER
SOUTH FL. WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, MORE OR LESS TRAILING FROM CHANTAL, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
INTO NORTHEAST FL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF I-10. A NOTABLE MOISTURE
GRADIENT EXISTS OVER NORTHEAST FL WITH PWATS TO ABOUT 2.1 INCHES
COMPARED TO INLAND SOUTHEAST GA WHERE VALUES DROP TO ABOUT NEAR 1.75
INCHES. JAX SOUNDING SHOWS WARM CONDITIONS ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS
NOW AT -6C, WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. THE AIRMASS
IS STILL PRIMED FOR FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SRN MOST
ZONES, GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST AUGUSTINE TO GAINESVILLE.
ALREADY SEEING RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS ACROSS THESE AREAS AT
930 AM, AND SO SOME EXPECT THAT WE'LL SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP VERY
SOON. GIVEN THE JUICY AIRMASS, WEAK SHEAR, AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT, THE
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS LOW, WITH DOWNBURST CONDITIONS
UNFAVORABLE GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS IN
NORTHEAST FL. DCAPE VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN 600-700 J/KG IN
MOST AREAS. MODIFIED JAX SOUNDING YIELDS MLCAPE OF ABOUT 1400 J/KG,
BUT FORECASTS FROM RAP SHOWS SOME 1500-2000 VALUES FOR NORTHEAST FL.
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A QUICK 1-3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
ARE ADVERTISED OF UP TO 60-80 PERCENT FOR INLAND NORTHEAST FL, AND
DOWN TO 20-40 PERCENT FOR SOUTHEAST GA. ISOLATED CONVECTION FORECAST
IN THE 8-11 PM TIME FRAME, BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER,
APPEARS WILL BE START OF UP OF ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE
TONIGHT EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN MARION, ALACHUA, AND
GILCHRIST COUNTIES DUE TO THE DEEP SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND
ELEVATED PWATS OF ABOUT 1.9 INCHES.
HIGHS TODAY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOWER 90S FAIRLY COMMON
OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CONVECTION. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF ABOUT 100
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY.
MAIN UPDATES WERE TO TWEAK POPS AND SKY COVER BUT FORECAST
LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S AREA-WIDE, EVEN AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINS PINNED TO
THE COAST. INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST ABOVE 95 DEGREES BOTH AFTERNOONS, HOWEVER WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS, HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY MAX OUT AT 100-105 DEGREES.
A FEW ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
MOISTURE INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS
AREA-WIDE AS SEA BREEZES AND BOUNDARIES INTERACT. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS WELL,
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
VFR CIGS AROUND AT THIS TIME WITH MID CLOUD DECK INLAND NORTHEAST
FL. SHOULD SEE A SCATTERED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, BUT MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY FORECAST TOWARD GNV
AND POSSIBLY SGJ THIS AFTERNOON. MORE LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE FOR
SSI SO ONLY HAVE VCSH THERE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR GNV AND SGJ WHERE PROBS ARE HIGHER, AND THEN PROB30
GROUPS FOR JAX, CRG, AND VQQ FOR NOW. SOME ENHANCED CHANCES AROUND
GNV BEFORE 18Z TODAY SO HAVE TEMPO FOR A SHOWER AND MVFR CIG 14Z-18Z,
BASED SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION STILL LOOKS
TO END AROUND THE 01Z-02Z TIME FRAME AND THEN PREVAILING VFR CIGS
AFTERWARD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO BEGIN TODAY BUT BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY
OR SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN SHIFT ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTN FROM THE
SEA BREEZE AT SSI, CRG, AND SGJ.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY CHANTAL TRACKS
FARTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS GEORGIA.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND MONDAY FOR ALL
SE GA AND NE FL BEACHES, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AND ONSHORE WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 73 95 74 / 20 10 30 10
SSI 91 77 91 77 / 20 10 20 10
JAX 93 74 94 75 / 50 20 40 10
SGJ 90 74 91 75 / 50 20 40 10
GNV 92 72 93 72 / 70 20 50 10
OCF 90 74 90 74 / 80 20 50 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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