795
FXUS62 KJAX 061742
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
142 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGHING FROM THE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO
NORTH FL OR BASICALLY ALONG THE FL/GA STATE LINE. PWAT ANALYSIS
SHOWS VALUES OF 2 TO 2.1 INCHES OVER NORTHEAST FL AND A BIT LOWER
OVER SOUTHEAST GA. BEST FORCING FOR CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE
OVER NORTHEAST FL SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS NOW SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE. NORTH OF THAT, THE AIRMASS IS A BIT
MORE STABLE AS CONVECTION HAS BEEN MUTED THERE SO FAR. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, THE MORE CONVECTIVE AIR-MASS WILL
SHIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD MOVING TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR. EXPECT
THAT A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
FL, WHICH IS WHERE ANALYSIS SHOW MLCAPE OF ABOUT 1800-2000 J/KG
WILL OCCUR, THOUGH DCAPE VALUES REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AROUND 600.
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST GA WHERE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOCATED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING AROUND 7-10 PM THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES LATE TONIGHT DUE TO PREVAILING SOUTHWEST
FLOW OFF THE GULF. LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
AND CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHY SHALLOW FOG AT TIMES EARLY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OVER THE FL PENINSULA
DURING THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR THE GULF BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, KEEPING THE ATLANTIC BREEZE ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY BE LIMITED INITIALLY WITH DRY AIR OVERHEAD ON MONDAY,
BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SEE PWATS STEADILY INCREASE AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 90S EACH AFTERNOON, WITH WARMER TEMPS OVER SE GA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S AREA WIDE, WARMER TEMPS ALONG COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINANT THE AREA DURING THE REST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOK TO REMAIN
SITUATED OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY INCREASE FROM MIDWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVERHEAD AS PWATS RANGE FROM 1.95" TO 2.25".
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS
EAST ALONG THE GULF BREEZE, THEN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MERGERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL SIT IN THE LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, BUT SOME MAY ONLY SEE TEMPS GET
INTO THE UPPER 80S AS SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO GET AN EARLY
START DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SIT
IN THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
VCSH ARE ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH INTO CRG AND JAX BY 19Z
AND GET UP INTO SSI AROUND 23Z. RAIN AND STORMS WILL START TO
DIMINISH OVER THE TAF SITES AFTER SUNSET WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER SSI. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER GNV AND SGJ UNTIL AROUND 00Z WITH GNV AND SGJ HAVING HIGHER
CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 15KTS POSSIBLE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 7KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SURFACE RIDGE STARTING OUT OVER SOUTH FL AND THE CENTRAL GULF
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL THEREFORE WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH, WITH SOME DAILY
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES OCCASIONALLY BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST EACH DAY. PEAK WINDS OVER THE WATERS LOOK TO BE ABOUT
10-15 KT OR SOLID 15 KT, WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL OCCASIONALLY
REACH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF TIME. SEAS WILL BE
AROUND THE 2-4 FT RANGE FOR MOST PART.
SCATTERED T-STORMS MAY PUSH INTO THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS EACH DAY,
BUT MOSTLY SHOULD STAY NEAR THE COAST OR INLAND. OF CONCERN TO
BOATERS, ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING EACH DAY.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SURF NEAR 2-3 FT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 95 74 95 / 10 30 10 40
SSI 77 91 77 91 / 10 20 10 30
JAX 74 94 75 94 / 20 40 10 50
SGJ 74 91 75 92 / 20 40 10 40
GNV 72 93 72 93 / 20 50 10 60
OCF 74 90 74 91 / 20 50 10 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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