826
FXUS62 KJAX 071305
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
905 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 905 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
CURRENT SATELLITE OBS INDICATE PWATS OF AROUND 2" FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND JUST NORTH OF THE FL/GA STATE LINE AS
WELL AS THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWING 2.04" THIS MORNING. WITH THE
CONTINUING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, CURRENT THINKING IS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ALONG THESE LOCATIONS IN ADDITION
TO ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS THE GULF SEA BREEZE MAKES ITS WAY
INLAND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP TODAY, WITH CONCERN FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR SLOW
MOVING STORMS AND LOCATIONS THAT SEE TRAINING SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE (PWAT > 2 INCHES) THAT HAS PERSISTED
ACROSS OUR NORTH-CENTRAL FL ZONES THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY TOWARD SE GA AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN
LAYER RIDGE AXIS PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS SOUTH FL. SW STEERING FLOW
CONTINUES, BUT WEAKENS INTO THE 5-10 KT RANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING GULF COAST CONVECTION INLAND THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING ALONG THE
INLAND PROGRESSING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE
AXIS OF PWAT > 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF SE GA LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WHERE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FOCUS. GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH PWAT,
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND LOCALIZED WET DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL, RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPPER
OFF LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM
RECENT DAYS, AS DRIER AIR LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTH FL. RAINFALL WILL TAPPER OFF AFTER SUNSET
INTO LINGERING STRATIFORM AND FADING THUNDER OVER INLAND AREAS,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10 PM -12 AM. SW STEERING FLOW WILL
ONCE AGAIN BRING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS
TOWARD THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY EARLY TUE MORNING, WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TODAY ACROSS SE GA TO THE LOWER
90S ACROSS NE FL AND TOWARD THE COAST, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105 DEG. MUGGY OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON TUESDAY,
AND ALLOW FOR THE GULF SEA BREEZE TO DOMINATE. SHOWERS WILL MOVE
IN OFF THE GULF IN THE MORNING, AND STORMS WILL FIRE UP IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES INTERACT. A SIMILAR
SETUP IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR 2.0+ INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AREA-WIDE, EVEN AT THE EAST COAST
SINCE THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR
HIGH PWATS AND DAILY DIURNAL STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S
WITH MILD LOWS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 905 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SW STEERING FLOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE GULF
TOWARDS GNV BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. KEPT
VCSH AT JAX, VQQ, CRG AND SGJ FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME, ADDED
PROB30 FOR STORMS OVER THE TAF SITES. WILL AMEND TAFS AS WE
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR TEMPO GROUP INCLUSION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS GEORGIA THIS WEEK. PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE COAST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TODAY WITH AN
EASTERLY LONG 15 PERIOD SECOND SWELL OF 1-2 FT NOTED AT BUOY 41117
(EAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE). A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
AS WELL WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AND
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 95 74 94 74 / 50 30 40 30
SSI 90 76 90 77 / 60 30 20 20
JAX 93 75 93 75 / 60 40 50 20
SGJ 91 75 91 75 / 50 20 40 20
GNV 92 72 93 72 / 60 20 60 20
OCF 90 73 91 73 / 60 20 50 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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