052
FXUS62 KJAX 071740
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
140 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION THANKS TO THE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE
FOCUSED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND INTO SE GA, WITH
SOME ACTIVITY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG NORTH CENTRAL
FL AS THE GULF SEA BREEZE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND. WITH PWATS
CURRENTLY AROUND 2", THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CAUSE FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR LOW-LYING
AREAS AND THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE HAD SEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO
DWINDLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE
OFFSHORE. HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
NE FL AND COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH SE GA PRIMARILY IN THE MID 90S.
LOWS IN THE 70S AREA WIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
WEAK WEST AND SOUTHWEST DEEP LAYER FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS IN FAIRLY TYPICAL
PLACE IN SUMMERTIME OVER CENTRAL FL OR SOUTH CENTRAL FL. PWATS
REMAIN ELEVATED BOTH DAYS AT CLOSE TO 1.7 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY
AND 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR INITIAL
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE EARLY IN THE
DAY AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE CENTRAL AND EAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE
PATTERN. WILL PROBABLY LEAN TOWARD 50-70 PERCENT COVERAGE ON
TUESDAY AND THEN NUDGING UP POPS WEDNESDAY A BIT GIVEN THE PWATS
WILL BE HIGHER WITH NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE FAVORING MORE QPF FOR THE
WEDNESDAY PERIOD. WHILE TEMPS ALOFT TODAY ARE ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH 500 MB AT -6C, TEMPS ALOFT COOL GRADUALLY TUE-WED AS WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STRONGER
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND FAVOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL, POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTIER WINDS OF ABOUT 50 MPH, AND MORE FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
MEAN WEST- SOUTHWEST FLOW IS ONLY 6-7 KNOTS TUESDAY, THEN DROPS
TO ONLY 3-5 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH AGAIN SUGGESTS A LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT WITH A QUICK 1-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR
POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AREA-WIDE, EVEN NEAR THE EAST COAST. LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
THE MEAN LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY THIS PERIOD WITH
A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL FL. FLOW MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. PWATS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD, ABOUT
1.8 TO 2 INCHES, PLUS OR MINUS A TENTH OR TWO. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, WITH POPS OF AT LEAST
40-60 PERCENT EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE LOWER 90S WITH MILD LOWS IN THE
70S. HEAT INDICES OF ABOUT 100-105 ARE LIKELY EACH DAY,
POTENTIALLY A LITTLE HIGHER IN SOME SPOTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
VCSH OVER MOST TAF SITES WITH GNV HAVING VCTS LASTING THROUGH 00Z.
TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN FOR SSI, JAX, CRG AND VQQ AS CELLS CONTINUE
TO POP UP AND ARE EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. RAIN AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AT INLAND
SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO START POPPING UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS GEORGIA, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A SHIFT
TO ONSHORE AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND EACH AFTERNOON
THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
OF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH INTO MIDWEEK
AS LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL CONTINUE AND WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME ONSHORE
EACH AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 94 74 92 / 20 40 30 70
SSI 76 90 77 89 / 20 20 20 50
JAX 75 93 75 93 / 30 50 20 70
SGJ 75 91 75 91 / 20 40 20 60
GNV 72 93 72 93 / 10 60 20 80
OCF 73 91 73 91 / 20 50 20 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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