271
FXUS62 KJAX 080600
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK SW STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
BETWEEN MEAN LAYER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA
AND A TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION. GULF COAST CONVECTION WILL EDGE
INLAND TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE MORNING, AS INLAND
HEAT BUILDS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID LEVEL THICKNESSES TODAY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A 500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO SW ACROSS THE
AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON WILL
TEND TO KEEP CONVECTION MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE UNTIL BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS OCCUR ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WHERE RAIN CHANCES OF > 60% WERE ADVERTISED FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
301 TOWARD THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN OF NE FL.
SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF 2-2.2 INCHES WILL
BRING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. HEAVY PRECIP LOADING
WHERE BOUNDARY MERGERS OCCUR WILL ALSO BRING WET DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL WITH A CONTINUED LAYER OF DRIER AIR BETWEEN 700-500 MB
ENHANCING DCAPES (00Z JAX RAOB DCAPE WAS JUST OVER 940 J/KG).
GIVEN SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTION UNDER WEAK STEERING FLOW,
STORMS WILL TEND TO SLOWLY FADE AND 'RAIN OUT' THROUGH MIDNIGHT
OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH A RESURRECTION OF PRE-DAWN CONVECTION
BACK TOWARD THE GULF COAST AS SW STEERING FLOW CONTINUES.
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN REACH THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS SE GA AND LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 301 ACROSS NE FL
TODAY, WHILE 'COOLER' HIGHS IN LOWER 90S WILL FOCUS NEAR AND WEST
OF THE FL I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER
NUDGES INLAND FROM THE GULF. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES CONTINUE TO
RANGE BETWEEN 100-105 DEG, BELOW LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CONTINUED MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
INLAND TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AS WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES. THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL BE MORE SO IN THE UPPER
80S AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES TOWARDS I-95. HIGH SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE PRESENT BOTH AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS, AS
THE GULF SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND SPARKING UP CONVECTION. COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE AS SEA BREEZES AND OTHER BOUNDARIES CONVERGE OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. WITH WEAKER FLOW AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE, THERE
WILL BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOUR/FLOODING THREAT MID-WEEK.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
BEGINNING FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT BACK UP AREA-WIDE, WITH
HIGHS OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA REACHING THE MID 90S. WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, IT WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S AT THE ATLANTIC
COAST SINCE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED. HEAT INDICES OF ABOUT
100-105 ARE LIKELY EACH DAY, POTENTIALLY A LITTLE HIGHER IN SOME
SPOTS. WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NOT PUSHING FAR INLAND, THE
GULF SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE, HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE WEST
OF I-95.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE FADING WITH LIGHT SSW WINDS 2-5 KTS AT
TIMES. VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR BETWEEN 13-15Z AS
LOW LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD FORMS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. SW WINDS INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH GULF
CONVECTION APPROACHING GNV WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
POPPING TOWARD EAST COAST TERMINALS AFTER 18Z WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND PRESSING INLAND. SW WINDS BACK SE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS 10-12 KTS AS THE EAST COAST PRESSES
INLAND INTO EARLY EVENING. PROB30S CONTINUE FOR ALL TERMINALS
BETWEEN 17Z-23Z WITH TEMPOS ADDED LATER TODAY AS RADAR TRENDS
UNFOLD. RAINFALL TAPPERS OFF SLOWLY INLAND AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THROUGH 06Z AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ONCE AGAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS GEORGIA WILL BRING PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS,
SHIFTING ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. EVENING NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES WILL NEAR 15 TO 20 KNOTS
BRIEFLY AT TIMES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
OF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TODAY WITH AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF AROUND 1.5 FT WITH 14 SECOND PERIODS AT BUOY
41117 (EAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE). A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED WED FOR
FL BEACHES WITH A LOW RISK FOR SE GA BEACHES AS THE EASTERLY
SWELL COMPONENT FADES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 95 74 91 73 / 70 50 80 30
SSI 89 76 87 76 / 30 30 50 30
JAX 94 74 91 73 / 50 40 80 30
SGJ 92 75 90 75 / 40 30 60 20
GNV 93 73 91 73 / 70 30 80 20
OCF 92 74 91 73 / 60 30 80 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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