164
FXUS62 KJAX 081748
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
148 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
A LIGHT BUT MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW CONTINUES WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE OFFERED BY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INITIALLY CAP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZES INITIALLY
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATLC AND GULF BREEZES SHOULD COLLIDE
NEAR THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
AS THAT OCCURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE PRIMARY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT ZONE AS STORM
COVERAGE BLOOMS. GIVEN THE SLOW STEERING AND DEEP MOISTURE AROUND
2" OF PWAT, THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING
ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS. SOME
REINFORCING HEAVY RAIN SIGNALS ARE ALSO NOTED AMONG THE HREF
GUIDANCE, INDICATING A CORRIDOR OF AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (10-20%)
OF 3"+ RAIN OVERLAPPING A MEDIUM CHANCE (50-60%) OF 1" RAIN TOTALS
ALONG THE ANTICIPATED SEA BREEZE MERGING AREA.
AFTER CONVECTION PERKS UP DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS (5-9 PM),
THERE SHOULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS WEAKENING
VORT LOBE PROPAGATES OVER NORTHERN FL IN BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE.
AFTER PEAKING IN THE LOW/MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON (HEAT INDEX 104-
108F), TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL BACK TOWARD THE MID/UPPER
70S OVERNIGHT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MORE
LIKELY WEST OF I-95, PUSHING INLAND AS SEA-BREEZES CONVERGE. AMPLE
MOISTURE OVER FLORIDA'S SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL
CREATE CONDITIONS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THOSE AREA.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER
SUNSET BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY, CONDITIONS DRY OUT SLIGHTLY TO BRING
PWATS JUST UNDER 2" OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH SOME OF
THE HIGHER VALUES HOVERING OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS WILL LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. AFTERNOON RAIN AND STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SEA-BREEZES CONVERGE
INLAND. TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO BE IN THE LOW 90S OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING OVER INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
EACH AFTERNOON. THE GULF SEA-BREEZE WILL MAKE ITS WAY WELL INLAND
THROUGH THE WEEK, CREATING THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES WEST OF I-95.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AT INLAND LOCATIONS. THE
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK EACH AFTERNOON AROUND 100-105 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
WAVES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE ACROSS NE FL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATLC
SEA BREEZE PROGRESS INLAND. IN ADDITION TO SHIFTY WIND GUSTS AND
LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN OBSCURATION MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS; OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWNWARD
AFTER SUNSET BUT VICINITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AMID LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE ATLC SEA BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR, SHIFTING WINDS EASTERLY
BY 20-21Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING OVER INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
EACH AFTERNOON. THE GULF SEA-BREEZE WILL MAKE ITS WAY WELL INLAND
THROUGH THE WEEK, CREATING THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES WEST OF I-95.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AT INLAND LOCATIONS. THE
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK EACH AFTERNOON AROUND 100-105 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 70S.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WITH LONG-PERIOD
ONSHORE SWELL TODAY. MODERATE RISK IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS WELL
WITH THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 94 74 91 73 / 60 40 80 30
SSI 89 77 89 76 / 30 20 50 30
JAX 94 74 92 74 / 60 30 70 20
SGJ 91 76 91 75 / 50 30 60 20
GNV 93 73 92 72 / 70 30 70 10
OCF 92 74 91 73 / 50 20 70 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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