954
FXUS62 KJAX 091727
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
127 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
THE SE GA AND NE FL REGION REMAINS IN A PATTERN OF UPSTREAM
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. A STRONGER, MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE BROADER TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A BIT MORE EMPHASIS TO HIGHER END CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND LOCALLY INTENSE FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEEP LAYER FLOW SUPPORTS A CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA, AND THIS IS DEPICTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BY A MOISTURE-LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. PWATS WERE ALREADY A WHOPPING
2.16" PER THIS MORNING'S 00Z JAX SOUNDING, WELL EXCEEDING THE 90TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND JUST SHY OF THE DAILY MAXIMUM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS COMMENCED ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS LATE MORNING
AND WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE HEIGHTENED THIS MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DUE TO MARKETABLE SURGING MOISTURE ON THE ORDER OF
2500-2800 J/KG MUCAPE, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS
A RESULT OF OUR ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP- LOADED DOWNDRAFTS OF 40-60 MPH TSTM WIND
GUSTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA AREA WHERE SPC HAS HOISTED A
MARGINAL RISK. WITHOUT A PRONOUNCED STEERING FLOW (LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT) SOME STORMS THAT FORM MAY MOVE VERY SLOWLY PERHAPS EVEN
BACKBUILD AT TIMES. A NARROW CORRIDOR NORTH AND EAST OF WAYCROSS
HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BY WPC.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ANOTHER AREA OF BETTER
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF WET DOWNBURSTS OF 40-60 MPH, WILL
BE ACROSS NE FL NEAR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER EXTENDING DOWN TO NORTH
CENTRAL FL LATE AFTERNOON AND PUSHING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING
THE EARLY EVENING WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY CAN BUILD AND THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND PROVIDES ADDED IMPETUS FOR LIFT/CONVERGENCE.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DWINDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONGER
LIFT SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL COAST. SW FLOW CONTINUES, SO
EARLY MORNING GULF COAST CONVECTION EDGING INLAND IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER MOST OF THE AREA GOING INTO THURSDAY WITH
PWAT VALUES UNDER 2" OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA, WITH SOME OF
THE HIGHER VALUES HOVERING OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS WILL LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. AFTERNOON RAIN AND STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SEA-BREEZES CONVERGE
INLAND. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL AID IN BRINGING THE GULF SEA-
BREEZE WELL INLAND CREATING BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS WEST
OF I-95. TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO BE IN THE LOW 90S OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FRIDAY, VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS THURSDAY WITH A DRY SLOT MOVING IN OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL HELP DAMPEN SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST CREATING HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS INLAND,
MAINLY WEST OF I-95. HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S, STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT,
SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH OF HWY-82 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA GOING INTO
THE LATE EVENING BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND, STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER AT
COASTAL LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE DRIVING
FACTOR GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DAILY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL GET STARTED OVER INLAND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON. THE GULF SEA-BREEZE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
WELL INLAND THROUGH THE WEEK, CREATING THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES
WEST OF I-95. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH SOME AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S GOING
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
OUTSIDE OF RAIN, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
MORNING, LIGHT WSW WINDS UNDER MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS PASSING BY GNV. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SHIFT INLAND
AROUND 16-18Z SHIFTING WINDS TO SSE FOR COASTAL TAF. VCTS EXPECTED
FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH PROB30S
IN PLACE FOR HEAVIER STORMS. TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY FOR TS AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL
RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS GEORGIA WILL BRING PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS,
SHIFTING ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THU FOR NE FL BEACHES AND LOW RISK
FOR SE GA BEACHES AS EASTERLY SWELLS HAVE FALLEN COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE GREATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SE WINDS DEVELOP WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
WEAKER WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAVE CREATED
CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION TODAY WITH POOR TO
FAIR DISPERSION ELSEWHERE. THESE WEAKER WINDS HAVE CREATED SLOW
MOVING STORMS, PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, GREATLY IMPROVING DAYTIME DISPERSION TO FAIR TO GENERALLY
GOOD THURSDAY AND SOME PATCHY HIGH DISPERSION OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA FRIDAY. AFTERNOON RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WEST OF I-95 WITH THE
DOMINATING GULF SEA-BREEZE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 92 73 93 / 30 60 30 60
SSI 76 91 77 91 / 30 40 20 40
JAX 74 94 75 96 / 40 40 10 50
SGJ 75 92 75 93 / 40 40 10 40
GNV 73 94 72 95 / 30 50 10 60
OCF 74 92 73 93 / 30 40 10 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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