942
FXUS62 KJAX 101111
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
711 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SYNOPSIS...WARMER TODAY WITH LESS STORM COVERAGE ACROSS NE FL BUT
CONTINUED NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ACROSS SE GA.
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WERE PASSING ACROSS COASTAL ZONES AND
STARTING TO BLOSSOM ACROSS PORTIONS INLAND SE GA AND NEAR THE GULF
COAST WHERE ENERGY ROTATING ACROSS A MID/UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF GA
ATLANTIC COAST WAS ROTATING SOUTHWARD ENHANCING LIFT OVER LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES. THROUGH DAYBREAK, PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM CLOSER TOWARD THE
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.
DEPARTING EARLY MORNING RAINFALL, A BREAK IN RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDDAY FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW OFFSHORE AND DRIER AIR
STARTING TO ADVECT OVER NE FL FROM THE WSW. PREVAILING, LIGHT SW
FLOW WILL BRING A MORE DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH SHOWER
AND ISOLATED STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND TOWARD THE
EAST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE MERGER IS EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN. ACROSS SE GA, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK VORTICITY MAX AND SOUTH OF A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOCUSED THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TODAY
ACROSS INLAND SE GA MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING (NEAR 60%)
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE UNDER THE PASSING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH, WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES OF 30-50% ACROSS NE FL THIS
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR LIMITS RAINFALL COVERAGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY (PWATS FALLING FROM 2-2.25 INCHES TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES INTO
THE AFTERNOON).
STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK TODAY (< 10 KTS), SO LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTION WILL CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH THE AVAILABILITY OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THUS THE FLOODING RISK TODAY IS LOWER.
WITH DRIER AIR, DCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY
WET DOWNBURSTS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG TO PULSE SEVERE STORMS
ESPECIALLY FOCUSED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SE GA AND
ACROSS EASTERN NE FL WHERE SEA BREEZES/BOUNDARIES MERGE.
CONVECTION DECREASES THROUGH MIDNIGHT, WITH A RESURRECTION OF GULF
COAST SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE BEFORE
STORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 105. MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING THE GULF SEA
BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND SPARKING UP DIURNAL CONVECTION. PWATS WILL
BE NEAR 2.0" AND MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE DECENT SBCAPE AND DCAPE,
SO THERE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE A BIT LOWER ON SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS
STEERING WINDS SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST, BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR. OVERALL WITH LESS CLOUD COVER FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, SOARING INTO THE MID 90S INLAND
AND A LITTLE COOLER AT THE EAST COAST IN THE LOW 90S WITH THE HELP
OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL HAVE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 DEGREES,
ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON STORM TIMING SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE HEAT
INDICES NEAR 106-108 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY, WITH SUNDAY
HIGHLIGHTED FOR A LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK SOUTH OF I-10 DUE TO
WEAK STEERING FLOW AND MOISTURE SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, BUT AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES TUESDAY ONWARD, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S. AGAIN, MAX APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 100-105 RANGE, ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE HIGHER HEAT INDICES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SSW WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
INLAND WITH COASTAL TAF SITES SHIFTING WINDS TO SSE AFTER 18Z.
LESS SHOWERS AND STORMS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OVER SSI AND THE JAX METRO SITES. HAVE PROB30 GROUPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE ADDED LATER TODAY AS
RADAR TRENDS BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS GEORGIA WILL BRING PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS,
SHIFTING ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR BOTH SE GA AND NE FL
BEACHES TODAY WITH LINGERING 0.5-0.8 FT ESE 12-14 SECOND SWELLS.
MODERATE RISK EXPECTED FOR FL BEACHES FRIDAY AND LOW HEADLINED FOR
SE GA BEACHES AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 73 94 73 / 60 50 60 20
SSI 91 77 92 77 / 30 30 30 20
JAX 95 75 96 75 / 30 30 50 10
SGJ 93 75 94 75 / 30 30 40 10
GNV 94 72 95 72 / 40 20 50 10
OCF 92 73 94 74 / 40 20 50 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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