455  
FXUS62 KJAX 101734  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
134 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...  
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF  
 
LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH RESIDES NORTH OF REGION OVER NORTHERN GA  
AND SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST. AS A  
RESULT, DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A  
TRANSPORTATION OF MOISTURE INTO SE GA AND NE FL. PWATS THIS  
MORNING WAS 1.97 INCHES PER 12Z JAX SOUNDING, JUST EXCEEDING THE  
75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE I-75 CORRIDOR,  
WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN  
COVERAGE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT ADVECTS EASTWARD,  
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-10 INTO SE GA. THE AFOREMENTIONED  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND TOWARD THE EAST INTO THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MERGER IS  
EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. ACROSS SE GA,  
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THE  
APPROACH OF A WEAK VORT LOBE AND SOUTH OF A LINGERING FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. FOCUSED THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS INLAND SE GA MID  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING (NEAR 60%) WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE  
(PWATS ABOUT 2.1 INCHES) WILL COINCIDE SOUTH OF A PASSING SHORT  
WAVE, WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE 30-50% RAIN  
CHANCES ARE PROGGED ACROSS NE FL THIS AFTERNOON AS "DRIER" AIR  
LIMITS RAINFALL COVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  
 
WSW STEERING FLOW ABOUT 8 TO 10 KNOTS WILL MEAN THAT STORMS WILL  
MOVE LESS SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY, THUS THE FLOODING RISK TODAY IS  
LOWER WHERE NUISANCE AND LOCALIZED FLOODING/PONDING OF LOW LYING  
AND URBAN AREAS CAN OCCUR WITH STRONGER AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS  
WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR SE GA.  
 
CONVECTION SLOWLY WANES THROUGH THE EVENING AND DECREASES THROUGH  
MIDNIGHT, WITH AN ENCROACHMENT OF GULF COAST SHOWERS TOWARD THE  
SOUTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP BRING THE GULF COAST SEA-BREEZE WELL  
INLAND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO START POPPING UP ALONG AND WEST  
OF I-75 IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES  
INCREASE AND THE GULF SEA-BREEZE CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND  
WITH HIGHER CHANCES STAYING WEST OF I-95 AND EAST OF I-75. DAYTIME  
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT  
INDICES PEAKING AROUND 100-105 DEGREES. SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER  
AFTER SUNSET OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE  
INTO THE LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER  
INLAND LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING  
SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST. SATURDAY, PWAT VALUES DROP BELOW  
2" BRINGING AFTERNOON POP CHANCES BELOW 40% OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  
WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, CARRYING THE GULF SEA-BREEZE  
WELL INLAND, CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AS IT  
PUSHES ACROSS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH  
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES  
COOL OVERNIGHT, DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND STAYING  
SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
WEAK STEERING FLOW AND THE RETURN OF PWAT VALUES ABOVE 2" SUNDAY  
WILL CREATE SLOW MOVING AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS  
CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF I-10 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.  
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY  
IN URBAN AND POORLY DRAINING AREAS. NEXT WEEK, DIURNAL HEATING AND  
SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL CREATE DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOASTY SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S  
WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS SHIFT  
TOWARDS MID-WEEK, BRINGING COOLER AIR THROUGH THE END OF THE  
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK DOWN TO THE SEASONAL  
AVERAGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND WITH COASTAL TAF  
SITES SHIFTING WINDS TO SSE 18-20Z. LESS SHOWERS AND STORMS  
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER SSI AND THE JAX  
METRO SITES. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS.  
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z, WITH  
VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE NOCTURNAL HOURS AND MORNING  
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT MISTY FOG AT VQQ  
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z REDUCING SFC VSBYS TO 4SM.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A SURFACE  
TROUGH ACROSS GEORGIA WILL BRING PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS,  
SHIFTING ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES  
INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE  
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE  
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR BOTH SE GA AND NE FL  
BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE RISK EXPECTED FOR FL BEACHES  
FRIDAY AND LOW HEADLINED FOR SE GA BEACHES AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, IMPROVING  
DAYTIME DISPERSION TO FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD OVER NORTHEAST  
FLORIDA AND GENERALLY GOOD TO VERY GOOD OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR  
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IN THE  
LATE AFTERNOON, FOCUSED MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WITH STORMS  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALIZED FLOODING  
RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-60 MPH. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND, GENERAL AFTERNOON RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH  
THE HIGHEST CHANCES WEST OF I-95 WITH THE DOMINATING GULF SEA-  
BREEZE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 73 94 73 95 / 30 60 30 30  
SSI 77 92 78 92 / 40 50 20 20  
JAX 75 96 75 97 / 30 60 20 30  
SGJ 75 94 75 94 / 20 40 10 30  
GNV 74 96 73 96 / 10 50 10 30  
OCF 74 94 73 94 / 10 50 10 50  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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