924
FXUS62 KJAX 110453
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1253 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
LAST OF MCS HAS PUSHED INTO THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AND ATMOSPHERE RESETS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OUT TOWARDS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO DEVELOP SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE NE GULF ALONG
THE FL BIG BEND REGION, WHICH COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE I-75
CORRIDOR OF INLAND NE FL AROUND SUNRISE. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY, BUT
SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST STEERING
FLOW AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREAT, AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND AND MEETS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR ACROSS COASTAL NE FL AND ALONG THE US 301 CORRIDOR ACROSS
COASTAL SE GA BY THE EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE GA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS ONCE AGAIN. SOME OF THE MERGERS COULD PRODUCE
SOME SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS,
BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT, ESPECIALLY DUE TO
THE SEVERAL DAYS OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE OCCURRED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT IN URBAN AREAS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES AROUND 105F, LIKELY JUST BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY NIGHT OVER INLAND AREAS, WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US
THROUGH SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP IN THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH AND MOVE OFF THE GA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA TUESDAY, AND INTO THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FURTHER AWAY TO THE WEST INTO
THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO THIS
LOW, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
VFR CONDS WITH LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS EARLY
THIS MORNING, THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND WILL INTRODUCE PROB30 GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES,
MAINLY IN THE 16-22Z RANGE FOR GNV, 17-23Z FOR THE REST OF THE NE
FL TAF SITES AND 18-00Z FOR SSI.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS GEORGIA WILL BRING PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS,
SHIFTING ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCA/SCEC HEADLINES ARE
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE TODAY WITH
SURF/BREAKERS AROUND 2 FEET, WITH A SLIGHT SUBSIDING TREND INTO
1-2 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 72 94 74 / 60 50 30 20
SSI 89 77 91 78 / 50 30 30 20
JAX 94 73 96 76 / 60 30 40 20
SGJ 92 74 94 76 / 50 30 30 10
GNV 93 72 95 74 / 50 20 40 10
OCF 93 71 94 74 / 50 10 50 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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