752
FXUS62 KJAX 051145
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
745 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
LATE EVENING CONVECTION HAS FADED ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL FL
AND LIFTED NORTH ALONG THE GA COAST TOWARDS SAVANNAH. OTHERWISE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE THINNING OVER MOST OF NE FL WITH MORE
BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS SE GA. SOME
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALONG AND NORTH OF OF US84, BUT NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FOG. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL MAINLY HOLD THROUGH SUNRISE.
TODAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SE GA NORTH OF
LINE WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM
STRONGER RIDGING OVER NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA. ALOFT, OUR REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ALONG THE
MS AND OH RIVER VALLEY WITH BERMUDA RIDGING TO THE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. A WEAK 850MB WILL BE OVER NORTHERN AL HELPING TO
PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
(PWATS 1.6-1.8 INCHES) WILL DRIFT IN FROM THE GULF SIDE OF THE
AREA WHILE HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS (PWATS CLOSER TO 2.00-2.25 INCHES)
WILL RESIDE CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THE GULF SEABREEZE WELL INLAND OVER NE FL
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS ACROSS INLAND
AREAS WITH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IMPEDING THE PROGRESS
OF THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE. THIS PATTERN WILL FOCUS STRONGER
T'STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MERGING SEABREEZES CLOSER TO US-17
AND I-95 AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF SE GA TO THE
COAST. OVERALL HAVE 70-80 POPS ALONG THE NE FL COAST, ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN, AND MUCH OF SE GA FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T'STORM
DEVELOPMENT BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE SE GA COAST AS LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT, DIURNAL HEATING, AND HIGH MOISTURE COMBINE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVER SE GA WITH LOW
90S, AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER NE FL WITH LOW TO MID
90S INLAND TO LOW 90S AT THE BEACHES. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH AND TURN EASTERLY BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY PROMOTE
LOCALIZED FLOOD RISK IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS, ESPECIALLY
WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
STRONGER T'STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM WET DOWNBURSTS
WHERE CELL MERGERS OCCUR.
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ON WEDNESDAY, A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHUNT THE LINGERING
FRONTAL ZONE SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
LIFTS OVERTOP OF THE FRONT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO THE EVENTUAL COLLISION BETWEEN THE
GULF AND ATLC SEA BREEZE AROUND THE US-301 CORRIDOR. UPPER COOLING
ALOFT OFFERED BY THE SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
MESOSCALE AND STORM-SCALE COLLISION AREAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LIFTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE, CONVECTION MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING AND POTENTIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEFORE EXITING TO THE NORTH AND FADING.
ON THURSDAY, UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGHING IN THE
GULF WILL AID IN DEEP LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ON THURSDAY TO FOLLOW SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPERIENCED ON
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LAYING
SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN FL FOCUSING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG
IT. AMPLE INSTABILITY, FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE SUGGEST ANOTHER
AFTERNOON WHERE A FEW PULSE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE LOW 90S ACROSS NE FL AND SE GA WEDNESDAY
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE NORTH. COOLER TEMPS, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY IN SE GA AS THE FRONT SLIDES
BACK INTO FL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...PARTICULARLY WITH AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH THAT IS PREDICTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT FROM
THE ATLANTIC TOWARD THE COAST. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ORGANIZE ALONG THE TROUGH AS IT PIVOTS
INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NHC HAS MAINTAINED ONLY A 30%
CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN THE
RELATIVE WEAK NATURE, PROXIMITY TO THE COAST, AND INLAND TRACK.
FOR THE POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE, MOST EXTENDED GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES TREND THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WOULD BE FOCUSED IN THAT
SCENARIO; HOWEVER, THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL AID IN CONVERGENCE AND
ELEVATE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA BEHIND
THE TROUGH LEADING TO A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW AND DOMINANT
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SET US UP FOR A STANDARD DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM REGIME WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE
INLAND WEST OF THE US 301 CORRIDOR.
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD (EARLY NEXT WEEK) TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE AGAIN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO NOSE
WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN US. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
PRIOR TO THE BUILDING HEAT, CLIMO AND PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN NORMAL IS EXPECTED WITH THE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN WITH PREVAILING VFR
WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND HIGH DECK CIRRUS. PREVAILING
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE TAF SITES THIS EARLY MORNING WITH
CLOUD BASES AT 2.0 KFT TO 4.0 KFT THROUGH MIDDAY. THE GULF
SEABREEZE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T'STORMS TOWARDS GNV BY
16Z AND EASTWARD BY 18Z. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR NUMEROUS T'STORMS
AND ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS WILL BE 17-23Z AT GNV AND 18-24Z FOR
THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS AND A LITTLE LATER AT SSI 20Z-02Z THIS
EVENING AS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE PRESSES IN TOWARDS CRG AND JAX
BY 18-20Z. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM WET DOWNBURSTS ARE THE
MAIN HAZARDS AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND HAVE MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN PROB30 GROUPS. T'STORMS WILL END AFTER 00Z AT THE
FLORIDA TAF SITES AND LINGER TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT SSI
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
ON THE WANE, WITH VFR NOCTURAL CONDITIONS WITH SOME DEBRIS
CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS.
MARINE
A STALLED FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TURNING EASTERLY DUE TO THE SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM THE
NORTH WITH A COASTAL TROUGH FORMING WELL OFF OF THE FLORIDA COAST BY
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND
ELEVATED COMBINED SEAS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING
AN AREA OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER
THIS WEEK THAT MAY ORGANIZE AND SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST
THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NHC FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK MAINTAINED
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SEABREEZE TODAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 72 90 72 / 80 60 80 50
SSI 91 76 90 77 / 80 60 70 70
JAX 94 74 93 74 / 80 40 80 50
SGJ 94 76 91 76 / 60 50 70 50
GNV 94 74 95 74 / 60 30 80 30
OCF 94 75 94 75 / 60 30 80 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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