472
FXUS62 KJAX 051311
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
911 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
QUASI-STATIONARY "COLD" FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER BETWEEN
THE FL/GA REGION AND I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHILE ONE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SITUATED OVER CENTRAL FL
EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OFF OF THE SW FL COAST, AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ABOUT 270 MILES EAST OF EAST CENTRAL FL.
THIS MORNING WILL BE PRETTY MUCH CONVECTIVE FREE WITH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER SUWANNEE VALLEY BY MID MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND TO LOWER 90S BY NOON.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS 1.75 TO 1.95" PWAT VALUES THIS MORNING.
850 MB FLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FURTHER MOISTENING UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GULF MOISTURE
WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES BY THIS MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ADVECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF WAYCROSS. THE BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 2.25".
DCAPES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT
STRONG GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS
ESPECIALLY NEAR CELL MERGERS. WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW COLLISIONS NEAR THE SEA BREEZE MERGER BY US-17
AND I-95, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF 2 TO 4 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHERE STORMS LINGER OVER ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION.
LOCALIZED FLOOD RISK POTENTIAL IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE
AREAS, ESPECIALLY WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS.
OVERALL HAVE 70-80 POPS ALONG THE NE FL COAST, ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN, AND MUCH OF SE GA FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T'STORM
DEVELOPMENT BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE SE GA COAST AS LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT, DIURNAL HEATING, AND HIGH MOISTURE COMBINE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVER SE GA WITH LOW
90S, AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER NE FL WITH LOW TO MID
90S INLAND TO LOW 90S AT THE BEACHES. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH AND TURN EASTERLY BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE.
CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY WANE AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.
BASICALLY CONVECTION AND PRECIP FREE THIS LATE EVENING INTO THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS LOWS DIP IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN WITH PREVAILING VFR
WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND HIGH DECK CIRRUS. PREVAILING
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE TAF SITES THIS EARLY MORNING WITH
CLOUD BASES AT 2.0 KFT TO 4.0 KFT THROUGH MIDDAY. THE GULF
SEABREEZE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T'STORMS TOWARDS GNV BY
16Z AND EASTWARD BY 18Z. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR NUMEROUS T'STORMS
AND ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS WILL BE 17-23Z AT GNV AND 18-24Z FOR
THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS AND A LITTLE LATER AT SSI 20Z-02Z THIS
EVENING AS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE PRESSES IN TOWARDS CRG AND JAX
BY 18-20Z. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM WET DOWNBURSTS ARE THE
MAIN HAZARDS AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND HAVE MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN PROB30 GROUPS. T'STORMS WILL END AFTER 00Z AT THE
FLORIDA TAF SITES AND LINGER TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT SSI
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
ON THE WANE, WITH VFR NOCTURNAL CONDITIONS WITH SOME DEBRIS
CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 72 90 72 / 80 60 80 50
SSI 91 76 90 77 / 80 60 70 70
JAX 94 74 93 74 / 80 40 80 50
SGJ 94 76 91 76 / 60 50 70 50
GNV 94 74 95 74 / 60 30 80 30
OCF 94 75 94 75 / 60 30 80 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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