459
FXUS62 KJAX 061116
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
716 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
EARLY THIS MORNING, HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE THINNING WITH
ENOUGH CLEARING OVER INLAND SE GA TO HELP CREATE LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF US84. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY MAKE IT TO PORTIONS OF JACKSONVILLE METRO THROUGH SUNRISE
AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS TOWARDS THE FL/GA STATE LINE AND WINDS
REMAIN NEAR CALM AWAY FROM THE COAST. BY THE BREAK OF DAWN, LIGHT
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY NORTH OF I-10. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S WILL CHANGE LITTLE AS MUGGY DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.
TODAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING
OVER QUEBEC AND ALLOW THE SURFACE FRONT TO SINK MORE INTO NE FL
TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 4-8 MPH THROUGH MIDDAY.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WILL PRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA
WHILE BERMUDA RIDGING WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION
IN THE ATLANTIC. THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS A WEAK 850 MB LOW FEATURE WASHES OUT OVER THE NORTH GA/AL
AND ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEABREEZES TO PROGRESS INLAND,
LIKELY MERGING NEAR HIGHWAY 301.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS WILL FORM FIRST MIDDAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS BOTH SEABREEZES MOVE IN, THEN INCREASE TO MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T'STORMS INLAND AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS, AND ADDITIONAL LIFT ALONG
THE FRONT COMBINE AS SEABREEZES MERGE. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH,
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS (-7C TO -8C OR 25TH
PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY) WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND ELEVATE A THREAT FOR
STRONGER WET DOWNBURST WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO 50-60 MPH AS
T'STORMS PULSE WHERE SEABREEZES AND OUTFLOWS INTERACT OR CELL
MERGERS OCCUR. SOME SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THERE WILL BE
MORE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A
LOCALIZED FLOOD RISK WILL REMAIN FOR LOW LYING, FLOOD PRONE, AND
URBAN AREAS, ESPECIALLY WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVER SE GA WITH LOW
90S, AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER NE FL WITH LOW TO MID
90S INLAND TO LOW 90S AT THE BEACHES.
TONIGHT, SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER 10 PM INLAND WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS
THINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.
SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ON THURSDAY, WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING PROVIDES A LITTLE BIT OF
ADDED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE
SETS UP NEAR I-10, LEADING TO NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD STORMS ONCE
AGAIN. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE AND SEA BREEZES MAY LEAD TO A FEW PULSE STORMS, WHICH
MAY BECOME STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE, DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING PUSHES THE FADING
STORMS OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
FRIDAY, COASTAL TROUGHING LEFT OVER FROM THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE
WILL BE SITUATED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT ONSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL ENSUE BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED
TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE AM HOURS AND CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
INLAND AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE FLOW, THE
GREATEST AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE INLAND IN THE
VICINITY OR JUST WEST OF US-301. WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH BEGINNING
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT, SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY HOURS SATURDAY.
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE BROAD FRONTAL ZONE, ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER, AND WIDESPREAD RAIN, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BELOW NORMAL
OR CLOSE TO IT TO END THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF WETTER THAN USUAL BEFORE HOTTER AND DRIER
DAYS UNFOLD NEXT WEEK. A LINGER TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHWESTWARD
INTO NE FL AND SE GA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE FUELING
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT, PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR A WEAK LOW, WHICH MAY TURN TROPICAL IN NATURE, TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH BUT GUIDANCE IS CONVERGING TOWARD AN EVOLUTION
THAT WOULD STEER THAT LOW NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS, NOT
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE FIRST COAST.
FLOODING RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND STRONG OUTFLOWS
HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE WEEKEND CONVECTION.
ANTICIPATE AN INLAND SHIFT IN THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE AS
SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISH SUNDAY.
BY NEXT WEEK, DEEPLY STACKED RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS FL
INCREASING DAILY MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S INLAND AND LOW 90S AT
THE COAST. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL TREND POPS DOWN STARTING BY TUESDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE (50%) TO DEVELOP INTO A DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE. RIGHT NOW, THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT FROM THAT POTENTIAL
SYSTEM WOULD BE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS LATE NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WITH DIURNAL
HEATING, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, AND
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS FOR EACH OF THE AREA TAF
SITES. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
A STALLED FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST
FROM THE NORTH AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS EAST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS
INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH AND MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST AND OUTER BANKS THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BRING MORE ONSHORE FLOW TO END THE WEEK. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER IS MONITORING FOR A THE LOW TO BECOME A POTENTIAL WEAK TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NHC FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK MAINTAINED THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS SEABREEZES TODAY AND ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY BRING WAVE HEIGHTS
OF 2-4 FT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 91 72 86 70 / 80 50 80 40
SSI 91 75 88 77 / 70 70 80 70
JAX 94 74 89 74 / 60 50 90 60
SGJ 92 76 89 75 / 60 50 80 70
GNV 94 74 92 73 / 70 30 90 50
OCF 94 75 92 74 / 70 30 90 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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