058
FXUS62 KJAX 070028
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
828 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT 8 PM. SIMILAR
THINKING AS BEFORE, AND APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE OVER
SOUTHEAST GA, ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF ST AUGUSTINE, AND
THE COASTAL WATERS. MAIN UPDATES FOR REST OF TONIGHT WERE TO ADJUST
THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER BASED LATEST DATA AND FORECASTS.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING. WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE,
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
DIURNAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES AHEAD OF THE
MOSTLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD STORMS BUILDING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
PRIMARY DRIVERS FOR DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
OCCURRING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND AREAS OF
CONVERGENCE. HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED OVER INLAND AREAS
ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S PRIMARILY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND IN THE LOWER 90S FOR NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
PATTERN OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESSENING THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SOUTH-EASTERLY PREVAILING DEVELOPING BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM OUT OF THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
MID 90S BEFORE MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SOME VCSH IN THE AREA AROUND GNV TO SSI AND POINTS TO THE
NORTHWEST. BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTION TO 5-6SM POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 05Z.
SOME LOW CLOUDS ALSO IN THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF MVFR
CIG POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. PATCHY INLAND FOG MAY PRODUCE RESTRICTIONS
AT KVQQ TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY. LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER A GOOD PART OF SOUTHEAST GA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
WHICH COULD PRODUCE RESTRICTIONS AT IFR AT KSSI. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, WITH
GREATER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN SINK SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL FRIDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING AN AREA THAT MAY BECOME
A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NHC FORECASTS THROUGH THE
WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 71 87 70 87 / 40 50 20 60
SSI 76 87 76 86 / 40 70 60 80
JAX 74 90 74 88 / 30 70 60 90
SGJ 76 89 76 88 / 30 70 60 90
GNV 73 92 73 90 / 30 90 40 90
OCF 75 92 74 89 / 20 90 40 90
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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