121
FXUS62 KJAX 071653
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1253 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FRONTAL ZONE WILL SINK A LITTLE SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL THROUGH
TONIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH CONVERGENCE
REMAINING WITH THE BOUNDARY, SHOWER CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S
COAST.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
DIURNAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MOSTLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY DRIFTS
NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH PWAT VALUES MEASURING UPWARDS OF 2.3
INCHES. POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD STORMS BUILDING
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY DRIVERS FOR DEVELOPMENTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK OCCURRING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND AREAS OF CONVERGENCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
MOIST ONSHORE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE INHIBITED BY MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS IN OVER THE REGION FROM OUT OF THE
ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND STARTING
WITH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 90S BY
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING EVENING. WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS AREA PROVIDING CONVERGENCE, SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
PATCHY INLAND FOG COULD RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KVQQ
OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
LATE FRIDAY MORNING, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, AS TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OVER AREA
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 70 88 71 87 / 10 50 30 80
SSI 76 86 77 87 / 40 70 70 90
JAX 74 89 74 89 / 40 80 60 90
SGJ 77 88 76 87 / 50 90 70 90
GNV 73 89 74 90 / 40 90 40 90
OCF 74 89 74 90 / 50 90 40 100
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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