078
FXUS62 KJAX 090016
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
815 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE UPDATE WITH CHANCES LOWERING TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS EVENING, BUT GENERALLY HIGHER CHANCES ALONG
THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF UP TO 60-70 PERCENT. DRIER CONDITIONS
NORTHWEST OF ALMA GA WHERE CONVECTIVE FORCING IS WEAKER.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, AND GRADUALLY FOCUS MORE INLAND DUE TO THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE. THE CONVECTION WILL LARGELY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS, BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST,
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
A WET WEEKEND AHEAD AS NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A COASTAL TROUGH SITS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. ELEVATED
PWATS (2"-2.35") WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE INLAND MOVING
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SUPPORTED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW. WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING LIGHT, SLOW STORM MOTION WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR FLOODING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
AREA, AS RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 2"-5" WITH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER
80S OVER NE FL AND THE MID 80S OVER SE GA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
THE WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS,
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. TEMPS DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AROUND THE LOWER 90S WILL
BEGIN TO TICK UPWARD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER
BEGINS TO LESSEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
CURRENTLY, MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT 00Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA AREA.
EVEN OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS, BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT, AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES LOOKS PROBABLE
AROUND SSI, CRG, AND SGJ SO KEPT IN SOME -SHRA AND DEVELOPING MVFR
CIGS FOR COASTAL TAFS. THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS FOR JAX,
VQQ, AND GNV FROM 08Z-13Z, BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THE IFR IS OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY, AND SO FOR NOW
HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW PROB30 GROUPS WITH MVFR, BUT GIVEN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE, IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. THIS LOW WOULD MOVE THEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, AS TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OVER AREA
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 85 72 85 / 30 80 40 90
SSI 77 86 77 85 / 60 90 80 90
JAX 74 88 74 88 / 50 90 60 90
SGJ 75 87 75 89 / 60 90 70 90
GNV 73 89 73 90 / 40 90 40 90
OCF 74 90 74 90 / 50 90 40 100
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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