761
FXUS62 KJAX 091241
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
841 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
..LOCALIZED FLOOD RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH BANDS OF MORNING RAINFALL STREAMING ON
SHORE ACROSS SE GA JUST NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT. CONVECTION
ACROSS COASTAL NE FL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY, THEN
PROGRESS INLAND TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL PEAK WITH BOUNDARY
MERGERS.
COASTAL GLYNN COUNTY HAS ALREADY HAD AN EARLY 1-3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING, AND WITH MORE BANDS OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
CONTINUED HIGH PWAT (2.2 INCHES THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE
DERIVED ESTIMATES) AND WEAK SE STORM MOTION OF AROUND 5 KTS. THIS
AFTERNOON, WHEN BOUNDARY MERGERS OCCUR OVER DIURNAL INSTABILITY,
WET DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING POTENTIAL ACROSS INLAND ZONES, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF
THE FL I-75 CORRIDOR.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NWS CHARLESTON, WE ARE STILL GOING TO
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH GIVEN THE FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LOCALIZED AT THIS TIME. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF FLASH FLOOD RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ACROSS COASTAL SE GA THIS WEEKEND. 48 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR OUR EASTERN GA ZONES ARE 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED, WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER END VALUES NEARING 6 INCHES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 80S
FOR MUCH OF SE GA AND COASTAL NE FL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL, WITH INLAND AREAS TOWARD I-75 ACROSS NE FL NEARING 90
BEFORE RAIN SETS IN THIS AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
COMBINATION OF A TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES, OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED EAST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES/I-95 CORRIDOR DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, THEN SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE RANDOM LOCATION OF SOME OF THESE
HEAVIER RAINFALL BANDS AND INTENSE DOWNPOURS IN STORM ACTIVITY
MAKES IT HARD TO PLACE A FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION,
BUT THE URBAN AREAS WILL GENERALLY HAVE THE HIGHER RISK OF ANY
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER
RAINFALL CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S, EXCEPT FOR
SOME PORTIONS OF INLAND NE FL SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE
MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT CLOSER TO 90F THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
RAINFALL REACHES SOME OF THESE FARTHER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. LIKELY TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INLAND FOG, BUT SOME PATCHY
FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE TODAY AND AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH OVER INLAND AREAS, WITH 1-2 INCH TOTALS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS, AND WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIMED MORE AT THE SE
GA COASTAL AREAS THIS PERIOD, LIKELY WILL SEE SOME LOCALIZED 2-4
INCH AMOUNTS FROM JAX NORTHWARD TO BRUNSWICK, GA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY DIFFUSES OVER NORTH FL. COASTAL TROUGHING TIGHTENS AS
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SLIGHTLY INCREASING
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ELEVATED PWATS (2"-2.4") WILL SUPPORT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE MERGER NEAR I-75 CORRIDOR. SATURATED SOILS FROM THE
RECENT MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENTS WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR AREAS TO
FLOOD AND TREES TO UPROOT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DAILY
CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE IN THE MID 80S FOR SE
GA TO LOW 90S FOR NE FL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA DISSIPATES ON TUESDAY AS ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEK.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES AS RIDGING INCREASES
BRINGING A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SEA BREEZE PATTERN.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BECOMES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT THE SEA BREEZE MERGER AND
STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL TO THE US 301 CORRIDOR. WITH THE DECREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE AND RIDGING INCREASING ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE TO ABOVE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AREA-WIDE
BY MIDWEEK. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE 100S AND
POTENTIALLY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
COASTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT INLAND
MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RESTRICTIONS.
WEAK STORM MOTION WILL BRING EXTENDED DURATIONS OF TS NEAR THE
TERMINALS AND HAVE VCTS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LIGHT
EAST WINDS 3-7 KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE ESE TO SE INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS TRAILING THIS AFTERNOON AT
COASTAL TERMINALS AS CONVECTION SHIFTS INLAND. TONIGHT AFTER 06Z,
WITH THE WAVY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
STRATUS WITH COASTAL SHOWERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW WOULD
MOVE THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEKEND, AS
TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OVER AREA WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK, WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING
AT BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: SOLID MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THIS WEEKEND WITH
SURF/BREAKERS AT LEAST 2-3 FT THROUGH SUNDAY, SOME POSSIBLE UPTICK
INTO THE 3-4 FT RANGE ON SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BORDERLINE
HIGH RISK AS SOME LARGER SWELLS REACH THE LOCAL BEACHES IN E-SE
FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 86 72 86 72 / 80 50 80 50
SSI 85 76 86 78 / 90 90 90 70
JAX 88 74 89 75 / 100 70 90 60
SGJ 89 75 88 76 / 90 80 90 60
GNV 91 73 90 74 / 100 60 90 40
OCF 91 73 90 74 / 100 60 100 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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