450
FXUS62 KJAX 100040 CCA
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
840 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE GENERALLY LOWER AT 815 PM DUE TO LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER, THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MAINLY ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, LINGERS IN THE REGION AND INVERTED TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN HIGH RAIN CHANCES (AT OR ABOVE 60
PERCENT) TONIGHT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM ABOUT FERNANDINA BEACH FL NORTHWARD THROUGH BRUNSWICK GA.
CHANCE OF 1-2 INCHES IS ABOUT 30-40 PERCENT FOR SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST THE POPS A BIT AND INCREASE
THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND MARINE ZONES.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES
PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
SHIFT INLAND THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH TRAILING SCATTERED COASTAL CONVECTION AS AN INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL FL. A MEANDERING SURFACE FRONT
LINGERS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA, AND THE COMBINATION OF THE
LIFTING INVERTED TROUGH AXIS AND MID LEVEL LIFT ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CONCERN REMAINS A LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL
RISK, WITH THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER STILL HIGH-LIGHTNING A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF
4) FOR COASTAL SE GA WHERE TRAINING WAVES OF RAINFALL ARE MOST
LIKELY. THIS MORNING RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS PARTS OF GLYNN COUNTY
NEARED 3-4 INCHES JUST WSW OF BRUNSWICK TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
THESE AMOUNTS BRING 24 TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES. THROUGH TONIGHT, AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR GLYNN COUNTY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM GLYNN COUNTY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE COASTAL HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TONIGHT,
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES WITH THIS MORNING'S "STURGEON" FULL MOON WILL
BRING NEAR ACTION STAGE TIDAL FLOODING TO SOME LOCATIONS. THE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AROUND HIGH TIDE COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD LIMIT DRAINAGE IN HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME OF OUR COASTAL,
FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS TONIGHT, INCLUDING BRUNSWICK, JAX BEACHES
AND ST. AUGUSTINE.
MILD, NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
NORTHERN FL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE DURING THE DAY TIME
HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE NEAR
THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHTS AS WELL DUE TO THE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE THIS PERIOD, WITH LOWS NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD,
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. DIURNAL HEATING AND
SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENINGS.
HIGHS WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
VFR CIGS AT THIS TIME BUT FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS REST OF TONIGHT. GNV SHOULD SEE LOWER SHOWER
PROBABILITIES AFTER 06Z. MAIN AREA OF LOWER CIGS AND MORE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS MAY BE CLOSER TO SGJ, CRG, AND SSI. SOME CHANCES FOR IFR
CIGS WILL BE FROM NEAR GNV, TO JAX AND NORTHWARD TO SSI FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUING SUNDAY,
WE HAVE VCSH/VCTS AND THEN ENHANCED CHANCES FOR TSRA AFTER ABOUT
16Z/17Z AND SO HAVE PROB30 GROUP MENTIONED FOR NOW. AS WE HAVE SEEN
WITH THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS RECENTLY, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR VSBY
IN THE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW WOULD
MOVE THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEKEND, AS
TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OVER AREA WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK, WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING
AT BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: SOLID MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THIS WEEKEND WITH
SURF/BREAKERS AT LEAST 2-3 FT THROUGH SUNDAY, SOME POSSIBLE UPTICK
INTO THE 3-4 FT RANGE ON SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BORDERLINE
HIGH RISK AS SOME LARGER SWELLS REACH THE LOCAL BEACHES IN E-SE
FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 87 72 89 / 30 80 50 80
SSI 77 87 78 88 / 80 80 70 70
JAX 75 90 75 91 / 60 90 60 80
SGJ 75 90 76 91 / 70 80 60 70
GNV 74 91 74 92 / 50 90 30 80
OCF 74 90 74 91 / 60 90 40 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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