476
FXUS62 KJAX 101114
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
714 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WEAKENED TO A SW TO NE ORIENTED
TROUGH ACROSS NE FL/SE GA. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW AND PWATS OF 2.0 TO 2.5 INCHES WHICH
WILL CONTINUE A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA,
MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL SE GA COUNTIES AND THE BRUNSWICK METRO
AREA, AND WILL MONITOR FOR A SHORT FUSE FLOOD WATCH IN THIS AREA,
BUT THE LONG TIME FRAMES IN BETWEEN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
MAKES IT TOUGH TO ARGUE FOR A WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT, AS WELL AS
THE FACT THAT A HEAVY RAIN/EMBEDDED STORM ACTIVITY CAN HAPPEN AT
ANYWHERE IN ALL OF NE FL/SE GA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OF
COURSE, MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, THEN SHIFTING TO INLAND AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. OVERALL
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH
OVER INLAND AREAS AND COASTAL NE FL WITH 1-2 INCH TOTALS ALONG THE
SE GA COASTAL COUNTIES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES,
WHICH COULD HAPPEN ANYWHERE, BUT MOSTLY LIKELY IN THE BRUNSWICK
METRO AREA. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS SE GA
AND THE NE FL BEACHES, BUT THE LATER IMPACT OF CONVECTION ACROSS
INLAND NE FL WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES
IN THE LOWER 90S THERE, ALONG WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-105F RANGE. EVENING STORM ACTIVITY OVER INLAND AREAS IS LIKELY
TO FADE ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS RE-
FOCUSING OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND WITH
THE FLOW BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE S-SE, EXPECT NOT AS MUCH
CONVECTION ALONG THE NE FL COASTAL COUNTIES, BUT STILL SOME ON AND
OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SE GA COASTAL AREAS. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS, WITH ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SOME LOWER STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE, BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
WET PATTERN CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH THE LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH
AND TROPICAL AIRMASS (PWATS 2-2.4") SUPPORTING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHIFTING FLOW TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY. ON TUESDAY, MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DECREASES ON TUESDAY
COMPARED TO MONDAY. WITH A MORE SSE FLOW, THE SEA BREEZE MERGER
WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN THE I-75 AND US 301 CORRIDORS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY IF STORMS TRAVEL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY
RECEIVED A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND URBAN/FLOOD-PRONE
AREAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DAILY CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ON
MONDAY AROUND SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR SE GA TO LOW 90S FOR
NE FL. WITH LESS STORM COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AND RIDGING BUILDING
IN, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONABLE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AREA-WIDE. WITH THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND RISING TEMPERATURES, PEAK HEAT INDICES ON TUESDAY WILL RISE
INTO THE 100-110 F RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FL PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY
SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT, THE AREA RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SEA BREEZE PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
BECOMES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. DEVELOPING WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT THE SEA BREEZE MERGER AND STRONGER
STORM POTENTIAL TO THE US 301/I-95 CORRIDORS. WITH THE DECREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND RIDGING INCREASING ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE TO ABOVE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AREA-WIDE.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE PEAK HEAT INDICES
TO SOAR POTENTIALLY TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108-112 F) AREA-
WIDE. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED INLAND NE FL FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS HEAT IN THEIR DAY 3-7 HAZARDS OUTLOOK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
LOW CEILINGS WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE SITES THIS MORNING, WITH
ONGOING SHOWERS LOWERING VISIBILITIES AT SSI THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
TEMPOS IN PLACE FOR HIGHEST CHANCES FOR TIMING OF IMPACTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING WITH WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THIS FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE HIGH BUILDS EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS
MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AT BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: SOLID MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND MONDAY
WITH SURF/BREAKERS 2-3 FT AND ONSHORE/SE FLOW CONTINUING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 87 72 89 72 / 90 70 80 30
SSI 85 78 88 78 / 70 70 70 40
JAX 90 75 92 75 / 80 70 80 30
SGJ 90 76 90 77 / 80 70 80 30
GNV 92 73 92 75 / 90 60 80 20
OCF 91 73 92 75 / 100 70 80 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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