924
FXUS62 KJAX 110522
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
122 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
TRANSITION PERIOD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS GA/SC, JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SHIFT
THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS CLOSE TO 2.5 INCHES SLOWLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL NE FL/SE GA AREA, BUT WITH PWATS STILL
REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHERLY
STEERING FLOW ALLOWING FOR BOTH THE GULF/ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
FRONTS TO PUSH INLAND LATE IN THE DAY, STILL ARE EXPECTING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP MORE OVER
INLAND AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND WITH THE SLIGHT
DELAY IN CONVECTION TODAY, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER RAINFALL
CHANCES, EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR INLAND
AREAS AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90F ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS,
THESE VALUES COMBINED WITH DEW POINT TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S
WILL START TO PUSH HEAT INDICES UPWARDS INTO THE 102-106F RANGE
ACROSS NE FL AND INTO THE 100-104F RANGE ACROSS SE GA, BUT STILL
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR TODAY. A MORE SOUTH TO NORTH STORM
MOTION AT 10-20 MPH IS EXPECTED TODAY, THIS SLIGHTLY FASTER STORM
MOTION AND SLIGHTLY LOWER PWATS WILL LOWER THE OVERALL FLOOD
THREAT, STILL EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE MORE INTENSE STORMS,
ALONG WITH BETTER GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL TO 40-50 MPH AS MORE
SURFACE HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATE DAY/EVENING MERGING OF
STORMS ACROSS INLAND AREAS, EXPECT CONVECTION TO FADE AFTER SUNSET
AND GENERALLY COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT, WITH FAIR SKIES AND
HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS, STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNRISE, BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS INTO THE FL
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AND OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT, THE AREA
RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SEA BREEZE PATTERN. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DECREASES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZES AND BECOMING NUMEROUS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MERGER.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY, THE SEA BREEZE MERGER WILL LIKELY
BE BETWEEN THE I-75 AND US 301 CORRIDORS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WSW FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT THE MERGER TO THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WITH LESS STORM COVERAGE AND RIDGING BUILDING IN, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AREA-WIDE. WITH THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
RISING TEMPERATURES, PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-109
F RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FL PENINSULA GRADUALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING, FORMING ALONG THE DAYTIME SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AS THEY SHIFT INLAND EACH DAY. WSW FLOW THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL PIN THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE MERGER LIKELY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FLOW SHIFTS TO NNE
FOR THE WEEKEND SHIFTING THE MERGER TO THE US 301/I-75 CORRIDORS.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 90S AREA-WIDE. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CAUSE PEAK HEAT INDICES TO SOAR TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
(108-112 F) POTENTIALLY AREA-WIDE. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED INLAND
NE FL FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT IN THEIR DAY 3-7
HAZARDS OUTLOOK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
RAINFALL HAS COME TO AN END AT NE FL TAF SITES, AND EXPECT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AT GNV/VQQ DURING THE 08-12Z TIME
FRAME, WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JAX TOWARDS MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SSI WITH MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AROUND 12Z.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESET DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY LOWER RAINFALL CHANCES TODAY, BUT
STILL ENOUGH TO CONTINUE AT LEAST PROB30 GROUPS AT TAF SITES,
STILL MAINLY IN THE 18-24Z TIME FRAME FOR MVFR TSRA ACTIVITY AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 25-30 KNOTS. OTHERWISE EXPECT COASTAL TAF SITES TO
REMAIN VFR AFTER SUNSET (00Z), WHILE SOME RAINFALL CHANCES WILL
LINGER AT GNV/VQQ UNTIL AROUND 03Z TIME FRAME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY, THEN BUILD SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS THIS WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SOLID MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND TUESDAY
WITH SURF/BREAKERS 2-3 FT AND ONSHORE/SE FLOW CONTINUING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 89 73 93 74 / 80 50 50 20
SSI 87 79 91 79 / 70 30 40 20
JAX 92 76 93 76 / 50 30 40 10
SGJ 90 77 91 76 / 50 30 50 10
GNV 93 74 94 75 / 60 50 50 10
OCF 92 74 93 76 / 70 40 60 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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