994
FXUS62 KJAX 111752
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
152 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
EARLIER SHOWERS AND T'STORMS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE BRUNSWICK
AREA TOWARDS SAVANNAH ALONG THE UPPER GA COAST WITH DIURNAL
HEATING NOW CREATING A SOLID CUMULUS FIELD OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WHILE SOME HIGHER OVERCAST REMAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE SUWANEE
RIVER VALLEY FROM GULF CONVECTION ALONG A REMNANT TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD NORTH OF OUR WATERS. HIGHEST MOISTURE FIELDS
TODAY WHERE PWATS ARE GREATER THAN 2.3 INCHES WILL KEEP LIFTING
AWAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT STILL HOVER
AROUND 2.00 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL SINK A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE REGION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS AND KEEP FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTHERLY BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND THE HIGH.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEABREEZES TO
MOVE INLAND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SPREADING FROM I-75
TOWARDS HIGHWAY 301 THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE MERGING WITH THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE. THE INTERACTION OF THE SEABREEZES AND
OUTFLOWS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH. LESS RISK
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING TODAY, HOWEVER, HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES IN
MORE INTENSE T'STORMS COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS IN
LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. T'STORMS WILL END
SOONER ALONG THE COAST WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 90 AT
THE COAST. THIS TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN
THE MID 70S WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-106 DEGREES,
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY. NONETHELESS, ITS IMPORTANT TO TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE AND TO HYDRATE REGULARLY IF WORKING OUTSIDE OR
ENGAGING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
TONIGHT, HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER AFTER SHOWERS AND T'STORMS HAVE
ENDED A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET OVER INLAND AREAS WITH WINDS LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID
70S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST AND THE BANKS OF THE
ST JOHNS RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE REGION FROM
OUT OF THE ATLANTIC BRINGING DRIER AIR AND LESS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DEVELOPMENTS FORMING PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND AREAS OF CONVERGENCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH MIDWEEK. HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE A POTENTIAL RISK FOR THIS PERIOD AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES RISE TO BE WELL OVER 100 DEGREES WITH DURING PEAK HEATING.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 70S OVER
INLAND AREAS AND IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTLINE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND OFF TO THE
WEST BY SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING FLOW SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. DEVELOPMENTS WILL
FOLLOW A MORE STANDARD SUMMER CONVECTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING PRIMARILY WITH WITH THE
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES POTENTIALLY MAY RISE TO 110 AND HIGHER WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
18Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW TO SCATTERED
CEILINGS AT SSI 2.0-2.5 KFT WHILE CEILINGS SCATTERED ABOVE 3.5 KFT
INLAND AND AT SGJ. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND INWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF SEABREEZES AND ADDITIONAL LIFT ALONG A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM SSI WEST SOUTHWEST TO VLD AND TLH. HAVE MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN
PLACE 19-23Z FOR T'STORMS WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT SGJ AS BULK OF ACITVITY WILL BE
JUST INLAND FROM THE SITE. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
10-15 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z, THEN SETTLE TO BELOW 10 KNOTS WITH
SHOWERS ENDING BY AROUND 00Z. LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT AT SSI, SO KEEPING VCSH THERE. LIGHT WINDS INLAND AFTER
06Z WITH LOW MVFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AFTER 08Z AT GNV AND
VQQ. LIGHTER WINDS 5-8 KNOTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GEORGIA
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY, THEN
BUILD SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS THIS WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SOLID MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND TUESDAY
WITH SURF/BREAKERS 2-3 FT AND ONSHORE/SE FLOW CONTINUING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 92 73 93 / 30 40 10 40
SSI 80 91 78 92 / 30 40 20 40
JAX 76 94 75 95 / 20 50 10 60
SGJ 77 91 76 93 / 20 60 10 50
GNV 75 94 75 94 / 30 60 10 70
OCF 75 93 75 93 / 30 70 10 70
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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