211
FXUS62 KJAX 112340
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
740 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
LESSENING DEEP MOISTURE, WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE OFFERED BY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOST OF THE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
LOCALLY RESIDED - ACROSS INLAND SE GA.
STORMS ONGOING SHOULD FADE OFF COMPLETELY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS
WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS BLEED INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAIN MESSAGE AND WEATHER IMPACT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE
THE RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
EARLIER SHOWERS AND T'STORMS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE BRUNSWICK
AREA TOWARDS SAVANNAH ALONG THE UPPER GA COAST WITH DIURNAL
HEATING NOW CREATING A SOLID CUMULUS FIELD OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WHILE SOME HIGHER OVERCAST REMAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE SUWANEE
RIVER VALLEY FROM GULF CONVECTION ALONG A REMNANT TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD NORTH OF OUR WATERS. HIGHEST MOISTURE FIELDS
TODAY WHERE PWATS ARE GREATER THAN 2.3 INCHES WILL KEEP LIFTING
AWAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT STILL HOVER
AROUND 2.00 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL SINK A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE REGION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS AND KEEP FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTHERLY BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND THE HIGH.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEABREEZES TO
MOVE INLAND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SPREADING FROM I-75
TOWARDS HIGHWAY 301 THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE MERGING WITH THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE. THE INTERACTION OF THE SEABREEZES AND
OUTFLOWS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH. LESS RISK
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING TODAY, HOWEVER, HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES IN
MORE INTENSE T'STORMS COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS IN
LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. T'STORMS WILL END
SOONER ALONG THE COAST WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 90 AT
THE COAST. THIS TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN
THE MID 70S WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-106 DEGREES,
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY. NONETHELESS, ITS IMPORTANT TO TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE AND TO HYDRATE REGULARLY IF WORKING OUTSIDE OR
ENGAGING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
TONIGHT, HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER AFTER SHOWERS AND T'STORMS HAVE
ENDED A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET OVER INLAND AREAS WITH WINDS LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID
70S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST AND THE BANKS OF THE
ST JOHNS RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE REGION FROM
OUT OF THE ATLANTIC BRINGING DRIER AIR AND LESS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DEVELOPMENTS FORMING PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND AREAS OF CONVERGENCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH MIDWEEK. HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE A POTENTIAL RISK FOR THIS PERIOD AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES RISE TO BE WELL OVER 100 DEGREES WITH DURING PEAK HEATING.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 70S OVER
INLAND AREAS AND IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTLINE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND OFF TO THE
WEST BY SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING FLOW SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. DEVELOPMENTS WILL
FOLLOW A MORE STANDARD SUMMER CONVECTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING PRIMARILY WITH WITH THE
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES POTENTIALLY MAY RISE TO 110 AND HIGHER WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KGNV THROUGH AROUND 01Z
BEFORE CALM WEATHER RECLAIMS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH CIRRUS FILLING INTO
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM WITH LIGHT, VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED INLAND AND A LAND BREEZE LIKELY DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AT THE COAST. SIMILAR WEATHER TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GEORGIA
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY, THEN
BUILD SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS THIS WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SOLID MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND TUESDAY
WITH SURF/BREAKERS 2-3 FT AND ONSHORE/SE FLOW CONTINUING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 73 92 73 / 70 30 40 10
SSI 89 80 91 78 / 70 30 40 20
JAX 92 76 94 75 / 50 20 50 10
SGJ 91 77 91 76 / 50 20 60 10
GNV 93 75 94 75 / 50 30 60 10
OCF 92 75 93 75 / 60 30 70 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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