894
FXUS62 KJAX 011613
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1213 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
LOCAL NOR'EASTER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE FL EAST COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO
DROP THE WIND ADVISORY AROUND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NE FL
BEACHES AS PEAK WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 40 MPH TONIGHT.
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/EMBEDDED STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE, MAINLY FROM ST.
AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH AND INLAND AS PALATKA AT
TIMES WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAINLY FOR FLAGLER COUNTY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR INLAND AS THE US 301 CORRIDOR ACROSS NE FL
AND EVEN LATER TONIGHT ACROSS COASTAL SE GA AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR
THERE. BREEZY WINDS OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
TO 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT, WHILE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, ESPECIALLY AT BEACHFRONT
LOCATIONS IN THE 15-25G35 MPH RANGE. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F ACROSS INLAND NE FL, BUT REMAIN CLOSER TO
NORMAL ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH TUESDAY, WITH AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FL. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO INLAND AREAS, KEEPING
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.
THE TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE
HIGH BUILDS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, BUT INLAND SE GA MAY STILL REMAIN DRY.
WITH THE WEAKER GRADIENT, WINDS WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED WEDNESDAY,
BUT WILL BE STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT THE COAST.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY, BUT CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST, COULD KEEP COASTAL
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2025
THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM
THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE GA/FL LINE
SUNDAY, BEFORE LIFTING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO
THE NORTH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER COASTAL NE
FL, WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE. WITH ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY, THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW, READINGS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL NEAR THE COAST
ON MONDAY, BUT NEAR TO ABOVE FURTHER INLAND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2025
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT SGJ THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES. A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES WAS USED THIS MORNING AT SGJ. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY SHOWER COVERAGE AT THE DUVAL
COUNTY TERMINALS, WHILE DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT GNV
AND SSI. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS OF 2,000 - 3,000 FEET WILL
CONTINUE AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS, WHILE VFR CEILINGS ABOVE
3,000 FEET PREVAIL AT SSI UNTIL AROUND 00Z TUESDAY, WHEN CEILINGS
MAY THEN LOWER TO AROUND 3,000 FEET. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SGJ, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 KNOTS
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. SUSTAINED
SURFACE SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AT CRG AND SSI AND AROUND 10 KNOTS
AT THE INLAND TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY TOWARDS 14Z. SURFACE SPEEDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AND 10-15 KNOTS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 02Z TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL WINDS MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2025
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN TANDEM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO
WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK, AS COASTAL TROUGHING
REMAINS SITUATED OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR SEAS
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
DECREASE LATER THIS WEEK AHEAD OF A SERIES OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONTS.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGERING ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FROM JAX SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER
BEACH WITH SURF/BREAKERS OF 5-7 FT. SURF/BREAKERS LINGER IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE ON TUESDAY AND 3-5 FT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2025
MIDDLE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF JAX TO PALATKA VICINITY WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN AT ELEVATED/ACTION STAGE WATER LEVELS AS THE
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN TRAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER WATER
LEVELS IN THE BASIN. MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PUTNAM
COUNTY AREAS IF THIS PATTERN LINGERS INTO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME WITH WATER LEVELS REACHING 1.5 FT ABOVE MHHW, BUT TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 86 65 88 / 0 10 0 20
SSI 72 83 73 85 / 10 30 10 30
JAX 70 86 72 88 / 10 50 20 50
SGJ 74 85 74 87 / 40 60 30 60
GNV 70 88 70 90 / 10 40 20 50
OCF 71 88 72 89 / 10 50 20 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ125-138-233-333.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ125-138-233-
333.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454-
470-472-474.
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