754
FXUS62 KJAX 020600
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS OF 2,000 - 3,000 FEET ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS, SSI AND SGJ.
BANDS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTHEAST FL WILL OCCASIONALLY IMPACT
SGJ, AND WE PLACED A TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS FOR PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND CEILINGS FALLING TO
AROUND 1,500 FEET AT SGJ DURING THE PREDAWN AND DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
TUESDAY. SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND
SSI AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO LOW TO
INDICATE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT GNV. GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KNOTS
AT SGJ THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY, WITH SPEEDS THEN DIMINISHING
TO 10-15 KNOTS AFTERWARDS. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AT CRG, WHILE NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 12Z, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY BY 17Z. SPEEDS AT THESE TERMINALS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2025
LOCAL NOR'EASTER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE FL EAST COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO
DROP THE WIND ADVISORY AROUND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NE FL
BEACHES AS PEAK WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 40 MPH TONIGHT.
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/EMBEDDED STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE, MAINLY FROM ST.
AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH AND INLAND AS PALATKA AT
TIMES WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAINLY FOR FLAGLER COUNTY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR INLAND AS THE US 301 CORRIDOR
ACROSS NE FL AND EVEN LATER TONIGHT ACROSS COASTAL SE GA AND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR THERE. BREEZY WINDS OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT, WHILE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, ESPECIALLY
AT BEACHFRONT LOCATIONS IN THE 15-25G35 MPH RANGE. LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE GA AND UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F ACROSS INLAND NE FL, BUT REMAIN
CLOSER TO NORMAL ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH TUESDAY, WITH AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FL. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO INLAND AREAS, KEEPING
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.
THE TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE
HIGH BUILDS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, BUT INLAND SE GA MAY STILL REMAIN DRY.
WITH THE WEAKER GRADIENT, WINDS WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED WEDNESDAY,
BUT WILL BE STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT THE COAST.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY, BUT CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST, COULD KEEP COASTAL
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2025
THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM
THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE GA/FL LINE
SUNDAY, BEFORE LIFTING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO
THE NORTH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER COASTAL NE
FL, WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE. WITH ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY, THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW, READINGS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL NEAR THE COAST
ON MONDAY, BUT NEAR TO ABOVE FURTHER INLAND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2025
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN TANDEM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO
WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK, AS COASTAL TROUGHING
REMAINS SITUATED OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR SEAS
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
DECREASE LATER THIS WEEK AHEAD OF A SERIES OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONTS.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGERING ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FROM JAX SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER
BEACH WITH SURF/BREAKERS OF 5-7 FT. SURF/BREAKERS LINGER IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE ON TUESDAY AND 3-5 FT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2025
MIDDLE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF JAX TO PALATKA VICINITY WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN AT ELEVATED/ACTION STAGE WATER LEVELS AS THE
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN TRAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER WATER
LEVELS IN THE BASIN. MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PUTNAM
COUNTY AREAS IF THIS PATTERN LINGERS INTO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME WITH WATER LEVELS REACHING 1.5 FT ABOVE MHHW, BUT TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 87 62 88 66 / 10 0 10 0
SSI 84 70 85 74 / 30 10 20 10
JAX 86 69 88 70 / 50 10 40 10
SGJ 84 75 87 73 / 60 20 40 20
GNV 89 69 91 69 / 40 10 30 10
OCF 89 69 90 71 / 40 10 40 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ038-132-
137-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR FLZ125-
138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.
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