898
FXUS62 KJAX 020806
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
406 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TODAY AT ALL AREA BEACHES
..ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN
..SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE (1009 MILLIBARS)
CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST. TROUGHING
EXTENDS TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE OVER OUR NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1025 MILLIBARS)
POSITIONED OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. ALOFT...BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION, WITH A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS. OTHERWISE, "HEAT WAVE"
RIDGING BLANKETS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. LATEST GOES-EAST
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY, WITH PWATS RANGING FROM AROUND 1 INCH FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA / OCMULGEE / ALAPAHA RIVERS TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
MOISTURE VALUES WERE CLOSER TO EARLY SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL FL AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL COAST, WHERE PWAT
VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 1.7 - 1.9 INCH RANGE.
COASTAL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO GENERATE BANDS OF MAINLY LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS, MAINLY FOR THE WATERS BEYOND
20 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COAST, WITH A FEW SPRINKLES CURRENTLY
MOVING ONSHORE ALONG COASTAL NORTHEAST FL. MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WHILE
MOSTLY HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA, DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER 60S
AS OF 08Z ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL WERE IN THE 70S, WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 60S AT
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS, WHILE VALUES AROUND 70 PREVAIL ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
A TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST TODAY, AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST MOVES ONLY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND BANDS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
SHOWERS THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE, MAINLY FOR THE
COASTAL ST. JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES, WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
REMAIN CLOSER TO EARLY SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGY. OTHERWISE, PERIODS
OF HIGH ALTITUDE CIRROFORM CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
OUR AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. FILTERED SUNSHINE AND AN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND AT COASTAL LOCATIONS TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS TO
ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH
SHOULD SHUT OFF COASTAL SHOWER GENERATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAIR SKIES AND DECOUPLING WINDS WILL ALLOW
INLAND LOWS TO FALL TO THE 60S, WHILE A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE KEEPS
COASTAL LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FL WILL BEGIN TO LIFT MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AWAY TOWARDS
THE NE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAINLY BE ALONG NORTH-CENTRAL FL AND COASTAL FL AND GA, AS
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST MARINE AIR
ONSHORE. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO WANE AND SHIFT TO BE
FROM THE EAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NE ON
THURSDAY. DRY AIR OVER SE GA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED
CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY, SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH INLAND LOCATIONS IN
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S. BY
THURSDAY, HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WHILE
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING IN COOLER MARINE AIR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND SE GA
AND NE FL. COASTAL LOCATIONS AND NORTH-CENTRAL FL WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND REACH THE FL/GA STATE LINE OVER THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ALONG THE COASTAL LOCATIONS OF
NE FL AND SE GA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY, AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF NE FL AND LOCATIONS EAST OF WAYCROSS, GA
AND TOWARDS COASTAL SE GA.
A WARM UP IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S, TRENDING A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO TREND
UPWARD WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING PAST THE CENTURY MARK
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BY THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A BIT AS COOL MARINE AIR MOVES INLAND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS OF 2,000 - 3,000 FEET ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS, SSI AND SGJ.
BANDS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTHEAST FL WILL OCCASIONALLY IMPACT
SGJ, AND WE PLACED A TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS FOR PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND CEILINGS FALLING TO
AROUND 1,500 FEET AT SGJ DURING THE PREDAWN AND DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
TUESDAY. SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND
SSI AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO LOW TO
INDICATE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT GNV. GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KNOTS
AT SGJ THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY, WITH SPEEDS THEN DIMINISHING
TO 10-15 KNOTS AFTERWARDS. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AT CRG, WHILE NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 12Z, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY BY 17Z. SPEEDS AT THESE TERMINALS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY, KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT
OUR LOCAL WATERS. SEAS OF 6-7 FEET TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO CAUTION
LEVELS OF 4-6 FEET TONIGHT. PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGHING OVER OUR
NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DECREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WEAKENS AND A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
STALLS TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY,
CREATING BREAKERS OF 5-6 FEET AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND 4-5
FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. THESE VALUES ARE JUST BELOW HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA. A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT ALL AREA BEACHES. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING BREAKER HEIGHTS
TO FALL TO THE 4-5 FOOT RANGE AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND 3-4
FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. A HIGH RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WITH A HIGHER END MODERATE RISK
EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. MODERATE RISKS ARE THEN
FORECAST AT ALL AREA BEACHES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
WATER LEVELS ROSE INTO MINOR FLOOD LEVELS DURING THE MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDES WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN TO THE SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE, AS WELL AS WITHIN THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY (ICCW) IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF FLAGLER AND
ST. JOHNS COUNTIES. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO CREATE TRAPPED TIDES AT THESE LOCATIONS, RESULTING IN MINOR
FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS THUS BEEN ISSUED, MAINLY FOR NUISANCE
TYPE FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. WATER LEVELS MAY RISE
TOWARDS MINOR FLOOD LEVELS DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE IN DOWNTOWN
JACKSONVILLE LATER THIS WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPCOMING FULL "HARVEST" MOON ON SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7TH INCREASES
THE ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT TO THE ALREADY ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
FROM THE CURRENT ONGOING LOCAL NOR'EASTER. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT WATER LEVELS WILL GENERALLY RISE BETWEEN 1.5 - 2
FEET ABOVE MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER (MHHW) AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
FROM THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 87 62 88 66 / 10 0 10 0
SSI 84 70 85 74 / 30 10 20 10
JAX 86 69 88 70 / 50 10 40 10
SGJ 84 75 87 73 / 60 20 40 20
GNV 89 69 91 69 / 40 10 30 10
OCF 89 69 90 71 / 40 10 40 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ038-132-
137-138-233-333-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ450-452-
454-470-472-474.
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