135
FXUS62 KJAX 031843
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
243 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW OUR WINDS TO DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS INITIALLY OVER THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND
WILL MOVE TO NEAR OR OFF THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE, WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES OR LESS. HIGHEST PWATS WILL BE
OVER THE SRN MOST ZONES AND THE FL MARINE WATERS WHERE SOME STRAY
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS MOSTLY CONFINED TO ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER
COUNTIES TONIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND
AREAS, LOWS WILL AGAIN DIP INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND
LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A FRONT STALLED OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PWATS NEAR
1.5 INCHES. A BIT MORE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA
BOTH DAYS, ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS SEA
BREEZES CONVERGE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. ONSHORE BREEZE
CONTINUES, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS KEEPING COASTAL LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. INLAND
AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S, WITH MAXIMUM
HEAT INDICES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON
SATURDAY, WITH SIMILAR STORM CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
ABOUT 20-30% AREA-WIDE AS LOW PRESSURE SITS OFF THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST AND A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AS
THIS FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE
BORDER AND STALLS, STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY ONWARD.
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE HELP OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT SOME CHANCES OF MVFR CIG AND
VSBY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY,
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MVFR MENTIONED FOR THURSDAY MORNING. DON'T THINK
A VCSH IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME FOR SGJ BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST
AND TRENDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT, AND BECOME
MORE EASTERLY 5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE HEADLINE WILL BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED NEAR THE FLORIDA
KEYS WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN
APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY, WITH THIS FRONT
THEN STALLING ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RIP CURRENTS: DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT THREAT REMAINS AT AREA BEACHES
AND AT LEAST MODERATE THREAT WILL EXIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN
THE RECENT ROUGH SURF EVENT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TONIGHT AND WITH WATER
LEVELS OCCASIONALLY HITTING LOW END MINOR FLOOD STAGE IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND ALONG THE COAST
SOUTH OF MAYPORT, WILL MAINTAIN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
TOTAL WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS
BASIN THIS WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FULL "HARVEST" MOON ON
SUNDAY SEPT 7TH. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WATER LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY RISE BETWEEN 1.5 - 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER
(MHHW) AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATER DURING THE WEEKEND. COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS
POTENTIALLY STRENGTHEN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 63 90 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 73 86 74 87 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 69 90 72 91 / 0 10 0 20
SGJ 74 89 75 90 / 20 20 10 30
GNV 68 92 70 94 / 10 10 0 30
OCF 71 91 73 92 / 10 30 10 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ038-132-137-
138-233-333-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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