208
FXUS62 KJAX 041239
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
839 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 839 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED ON THE FORECAST THIS MORNING, EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT LOWERING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS PWATS BELOW 1.5" NORTH OF GAINESVILLE/ST. AUGUSTINE.
BEAUTIFUL TEMPERATURES ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE LOW 90S INLAND
TODAY, AND MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
FAIR SKIES AND DECOUPLING WINDS AT INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEARLY DAILY RECORD LOWS AT OUR DUVAL
COUNTY CLIMATE SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. SEE "CLIMATE" SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AS TROUGHING
REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES, WITH
THIS FEATURE BEING REINFORCED BY ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD FROM THE FL
STRAITS TOWARDS SOUTH FL, WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1.5 INCHES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE IN PLACE FOR
ISOLATED, LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL, MAINLY FROM COLLIDING
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST SEA BREEZES. COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL WILL BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED, WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO
DEVELOP LIKELY BEING BRIEF IN NATURE AND REMAINING RATHER
PEDESTRIAN IN INTENSITY. THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS AND MARINE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING, THE DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE, AND A LOOSE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO SOAR TO THE LOWER 90S FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR, WHILE AN ONSHORE BREEZE TODAY KEEPS COASTAL HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, WHILE VALUES RISE INTO THE
70S ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND, WHERE
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY CLIMB TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.
ANY ISOLATED, LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG COLLIDING
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL LATER TODAY WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. FAIR SKIES, DECOUPLING WINDS
AT INLAND LOCATIONS, A SUBSIDENT AIR MASS, AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG
FORMATION AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL
FALL TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY, WHILE A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE KEEPS COASTAL LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE AXIS WILL LAY ACROSS SE GA, WHILE A
LEFTOVER FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN FL TO END
THE WEEK. BETWEEN THOSE FEATURES AN ONSHORE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE
LOCALLY. MEANWHILE, DE-AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN WITH READINGS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
LOW 90S INLAND WITH UPPER 80S AT THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.
INCREASING DEW POINTS WILL BOOST HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS NE FL BY FRIDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH RAIN CHANCES. THE DRY AIRMASS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES MINIMAL. HOWEVER, SOME FRINGE MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN
SIDE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN FL WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL FL FRIDAY AND THEN TOWARD I-10 BY SATURDAY.
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE, COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED STORM WILL BE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL WHERE UPDRAFTS MAY ENTRAIN LESS DRY AIR.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLE COOL FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED TOWARD THE REGION
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIGS SOUTHWARD
BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN US. POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY MONDAY
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR RISES TO NEARLY TWO INCHES, ACCORDING
TO LREF PLUMES.
THE FOLLOW UP SURFACE HIGH SHOULD SET US UP WITH ANOTHER "MINI"
NOR'EASTER ONCE AGAIN. THE SURGE AND DURATION OF THE EVENT LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. ANTICIPATE UNSETTLED, GLOOMY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS STRATOCUMULUS AND CONVERGENT BANDS OF
SHOWERS PUSH INTO THE COAST. FLOOD RISK INITIALLY SHOULD BE LOW
GIVEN THE SEVERAL DAYS OF PRECEDING DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR ALL THE TAF SITES WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY BREEZE. A STRAY SHOWER MAY IMPACT KSGJ THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, VQQ WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS
PRE- DAWN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD BU TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
STALLED NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
THEN APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY, WITH THIS
FRONT THEN STALLING ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY, BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDGES DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL
COMBINE WITH ONSHORE WINDS TO KEEP A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN
PLACE AT AREA BEACHES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
HIGH RISK IS LIKELY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AND SURF GRADUALLY BUILDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERLY FURTHER INLAND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING AT COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL AGAIN YIELD
FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
ON THE HYDRO SIDE, NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE WILL TRAP
TIDEWATER IN THE UPPER ST JOHNS RIVER POTENTIALLY ELEVATING HIGH
TIDE SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY AT OUR DESIGNATED CLIMATE SITES:
JACKSONVILLE 66/2023
GAINESVILLE 62/1891
ALMA, GA 59/1954
CRAIG AIRPORT 68/1998
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 68 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 85 74 88 75 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 89 72 91 72 / 0 0 10 0
SGJ 88 75 89 75 / 10 10 20 10
GNV 92 71 94 70 / 10 0 20 0
OCF 91 72 92 73 / 20 0 30 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ038-132-
137-633.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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