253
FXUS62 KJAX 041711
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
111 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 839 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED ON THE FORECAST THIS MORNING, EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT LOWERING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS PWATS BELOW 1.5" NORTH OF GAINESVILLE/ST. AUGUSTINE.
BEAUTIFUL TEMPERATURES ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE LOW 90S INLAND
TODAY, AND MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE AXIS WILL LAY ACROSS SE GA, WHILE A
LEFTOVER FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN FL TO END
THE WEEK. BETWEEN THOSE FEATURES AN ONSHORE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE
LOCALLY. MEANWHILE, DE-AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN WITH READINGS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
LOW 90S INLAND WITH UPPER 80S AT THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.
INCREASING DEW POINTS WILL BOOST HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS NE FL BY FRIDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH RAIN CHANCES. THE DRY AIRMASS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES MINIMAL. HOWEVER, SOME FRINGE MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN
SIDE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN FL WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL FL FRIDAY AND THEN TOWARD I-10 BY SATURDAY.
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE, COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED STORM WILL BE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL WHERE UPDRAFTS MAY ENTRAIN LESS DRY AIR.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLE COOL FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED TOWARD THE REGION
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIGS SOUTHWARD
BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN US. POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY MONDAY
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR RISES TO NEARLY TWO INCHES, ACCORDING
TO LREF PLUMES.
THE FOLLOW UP SURFACE HIGH SHOULD SET US UP WITH ANOTHER "MINI"
NOR'EASTER ONCE AGAIN. THE SURGE AND DURATION OF THE EVENT LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. ANTICIPATE UNSETTLED, GLOOMY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS STRATOCUMULUS AND CONVERGENT BANDS OF
SHOWERS PUSH INTO THE COAST. FLOOD RISK INITIALLY SHOULD BE LOW
GIVEN THE SEVERAL DAYS OF PRECEDING DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, PATCHY INLAND FOG (MVFR
CONDITIONS) WILL LIKELY IMPACT GNV AND VQQ PRE-DAWN, CLEARING UP
AS THE SUN COMES UP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD BU TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
STALLED NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
THEN APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY, WITH THIS
FRONT THEN STALLING ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY, BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDGES DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL
COMBINE WITH ONSHORE WINDS TO KEEP A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN
PLACE AT AREA BEACHES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
HIGH RISK IS LIKELY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AND SURF GRADUALLY BUILDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERLY FURTHER INLAND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING AT COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL AGAIN YIELD
FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
ON THE HYDRO SIDE, NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE WILL TRAP
TIDEWATER IN THE UPPER ST JOHNS RIVER POTENTIALLY ELEVATING HIGH
TIDE SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY AT OUR DESIGNATED CLIMATE SITES:
JACKSONVILLE 66/2023
GAINESVILLE 62/1891
ALMA, GA 59/1954
CRAIG AIRPORT 68/1998
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 68 93 68 93 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 74 88 75 88 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 72 91 72 93 / 0 10 0 20
SGJ 75 89 75 90 / 10 20 10 30
GNV 71 94 70 95 / 0 20 0 30
OCF 72 92 73 93 / 0 30 0 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ038-132-
137-633.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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