582
FXUS62 KJAX 100206
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1006 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
..HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS
..DRYING TREND TAKES SHAPE ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST FL ON WED
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
(1013 MILLIBARS) SITUATED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL, WITH A MESOSCALE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG COASTAL VOLUSIA
COUNTY THAT WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE (1030 MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA CONTINUES
TO WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, KEEPING A TIGHT LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ALONG OUR LOCAL COASTLINE.
ALOFT...BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE NATION, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED AT THE BASE OF THIS
FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY AIR MASS WAS FILTERING SOUTHWARD ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE PWAT VALUES NORTH OF WAYCROSS WERE FALLING
BELOW 1 INCH. A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR, WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED SOUTH OF I-10, WHERE PWATS
REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES. A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER, WITH THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL BLANKETING FLAGLER COUNTY AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
ST. JOHNS COUNTY. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND
THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY, WITH MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINTS WERE FALLING TO THE 60-65 RANGE FOR
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE DRIER AIR MASS, WHILE LOWER 70S PREVAIL
ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST FL AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. TEMPERATURES AT
02Z RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S AT SOME INLAND LOCATIONS TO THE MID
70S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHERE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS PREVAILED
ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE FL PENINSULA OVERNIGHT
COULD SHIFT THE RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY OVER FLAGLER COUNTY SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, BUT AREAS IMPACTED WOULD MAINLY BE ST. JOHNS
AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TO
PENETRATE WEST OF I-95 IN ST. JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT, WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
COASTAL DUVAL COUNTY. THE BIGGER STORY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
LATER ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS ALL ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN, WITH
MINOR FLOODING LIKELY AROUND THOSE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY
MAY TOUCH MODERATE FLOODING, BUT THE AREA IMPACTED DOESN'T APPEAR
TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING (SEE
"COASTAL FLOODING" SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS).
CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT, WHERE LOW WILL FALLING TO THE LOW AND
MID 60S, WITH UPPER 60S EXPECTED FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF
DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S, WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL COAST.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE OUTER BANKS
WEDNESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE EAST COAST TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL GIVE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THE OPPORTUNITY TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH FROM THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION. SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE SRN
ZONES ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE (LOWER
CHANCE THAN TODAY AND MONDAY), BUT FURTHER SUPPRESSION OF THE RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND ALSO MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
MOST ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND UP SLIGHTLY THIS PERIOD. LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG GIVEN THE WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MIN TEMPS WED AND THU MORNINGS WILL BE ABOUT 2-5 DEG BELOW
NORMAL, PROBABLY MORE SO UP TO 5-9 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA WITH LOWS NEAR 60 DEG.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
MODEL GUIDANCE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL DIG SLIGHTLY INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH MAY REFLECT AS A DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST AGAIN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL
ALSO ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ADVECT SOUTH INTO REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS PERIOD, WILL BE LIMITED
TO AREAS NEAR THE COAST AND NORTHEAST FL, WITH CHANCES OF 20-30
PERCENT AT BEST. FURTHER REDUCTION IN THE POPS POSSIBLE SAT-MON
WITH SOME GUIDANCE HAVING THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT.
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH LOWS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERE WILL BE WIDE RANGES IN OVERNIGHT READINGS OF AROUND 10-12
DEGREES BETWEEN COAST AND INLAND. A WARMING TREND FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S (COASTAL) TO LOWER 90S (INLAND).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 808 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SGJ, WITH PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A HEAVIER RAIN BAND
POTENTIALLY MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO INDICATE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AT SGJ, SO WE MAINTAINED
A PROB30 GROUP BETWEEN 04Z-08Z TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL EITHER
CONTINUE OR WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT THE DUVAL COUNTY
TERMINALS AND GNV, WHERE A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INDICATE ANYTHING OTHER THAN
VICINITY COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT SSI, WHERE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY THIN
OUT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP NEAR
THE SGJ AND GNV TERMINALS AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INDICATE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY COVERAGE
AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND GNV BY 21Z. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AT SGJ THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WHILE SPEEDS ELSEWHERE DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 14Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST LATER TONIGHT AND THEN ACCELERATES NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED OFF COASTAL VOLUSIA
COUNTY EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE EXPANDED TO THE WATERS SOUTH OF ST.
AUGUSTINE LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE, AS SEAS ARE NOW APPROACHING 7 FEET. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH
SEAS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AS BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST, LIKELY KEEPING CAUTION LEVEL SEAS OF 4-6
FEET IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FL WATERS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN LATE THIS WEEK AND
THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
WINDS AND POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, KEEPING ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS / BEACH EROSION: BREAKERS OF 4-6 FEET AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND 3-5 FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES WILL
KEEP A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN PLACE AT ALL AREA BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY. MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
COASTAL FLOODING
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
WATER LEVELS WILL PEAK AT MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND WITHIN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY (ICCW) DURING
THE IMMINENT HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH VALUES GENERALLY REACHING 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN
HIGHER HIGH WATER (MHHW), OR ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND. THERE WILL
BE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT REACH MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS OF 2 - 2.5
FEET ABOVE MHHW, LIKELY ALONG THE ST. JOHNS AND FLAGLER COASTS,
BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS MODERATE FLOODING WILL
LIKELY BE ISOLATED AND THUS WILL NOT WARRANT A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING. HOWEVER, TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT IN THE EVENT
THAT A SHORT FUSED COASTAL FLOOD WARNING BECOMES NECESSARY.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND AN ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
INFLUENCE ASTRONOMICALLY WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ELEVATED DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AROUND TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE THIS WEEK, AS WATER LEVELS GENERALLY PEAK AT 1.5 - 2 FEET
ABOVE MHHW FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
ALTHOUGH THE PERIOD OF RECORD IS LESS EXTENSIVE AT CRAIG AIRPORT
IN EASTERN DUVAL COUNTY...CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
RESULTED IN A HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY OF ONLY 79 DEGREES, WHICH
TIES THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER
10TH, WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 61 86 61 87 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 70 83 70 84 / 30 10 0 10
JAX 69 85 68 86 / 50 30 10 10
SGJ 73 83 74 85 / 70 50 20 20
GNV 70 86 68 88 / 50 40 10 10
OCF 72 85 71 86 / 50 60 10 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
FLZ124-125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
GAZ154-166.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-
166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ450-454-470-
474.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ452-472.
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