782
FXUS62 KJAX 100505
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
105 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN TODAY, AS THE FRONTAL ZONE TO
THE SOUTH SINKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY, WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NE FL. THESE CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW NE FL
COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT IS
FORECAST.
HIGHS TODAY WILL TREND A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL, WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS OVER EASTERN COUNTIES DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. FOR
TONIGHT, THE DRIER AIR ACROSS INLAND AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER INLAND SE GA, TO
THE MIDDLE 70S COASTAL NE FL ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD,
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO THE SOUTH. WEAK INVERTED TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR
SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE NE FL COAST. WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR LOCATED
FURTHER INLAND, THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INLAND.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOONS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS, AND AFFECT COASTAL NE FL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY, AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE EAST, THEN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, LEADING TO ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. FAIRLY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INLAND THIS PERIOD, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEING
NEAR THE NE FL COAST. A FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN
NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AND LOW STRATUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THROUGH THIS MORNING, A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF KSGJ WILL
KEEP MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN PLACE WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS WHEREAS
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH
CENTRAL FL COAST WILL TRACK AWAY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. AS THIS
LOW MOVES AWAY WINDS WILL DECREASE, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN EAST. WINDS WILL PICK
BACK UP AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK TODAY, MODERATE TO HIGH THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
TIDE CYCLES, AS ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 86 61 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 83 69 84 71 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 86 68 87 68 / 10 0 0 0
SGJ 84 73 86 73 / 40 20 20 10
GNV 88 68 90 67 / 20 10 10 0
OCF 87 71 87 69 / 50 10 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ124-125-
132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ450-454-
470-474.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ452-
472.
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