469
FXUS62 KJAX 102311
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
711 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
DRY AIR HAS MADE AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH THIS EVENING, WHICH HAS CUT
OFF ANY SHOWERS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO FLAGLER COUNTY AS OF 7PM. A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVER INTERIOR GA TO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER INLAND NE FL TO THE LOW 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER. A BIT OF A BREEZE LINGERS MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST, THOUGH LIGHT TO LOCALLY CALM WINDS WILL BE
EXPECTED INLAND.
WITH RESPECT TO HAZARD HEADLINES, HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR NE FL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY GIVEN SOME OBS
AND SPECIFICALLY WIND OBS JUST OFFSHORE. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
CONTINUES FOR ALL BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING, BECOMING MODERATE
FOR SE GA THURSDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR/NUISANCE
FLOODING ALSO CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST HIGH TIDE ON THURSDAY
MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN THROUGH TONIGHT. BEFORE THAT,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SKIRT OUR
SOUTHERN MOST ZONES REST OF TODAY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH FROM THIS LINGERING ACTIVITY REST OF TODAY.
WINDS CONTINUE BREEZY FOR EASTERN ZONES ABOUT 15-20 MPH, GUSTING
TO NEAR 30 MPH.
BY TONIGHT, MEAN LAYER WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY AT
ABOUT 10 KT TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT. THIS SHOULD LOWER THE AIRMASS
PWATS FURTHER REDUCING TO ABOUT 0.75 TO 1.3 INCHES OR SO. SKIES SHOULD
TEND TO CLEAR OUT ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND AREAS NORTH OF ABOUT
GAINESVILLE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT ABOUT 5-10 MPH WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
BELOW NORMAL, ABOUT 60/LOWER 60S OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, AND
MID 60S TO 70 FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND THE REST OF NORTHEAST
FL.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND COASTAL
NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LEADING TO A
MORE ONSHORE PREVAILING FLOW BEFORE THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR INLAND AREAS
AND IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COASTLINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO
THE MID THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH MIN
TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE COASTLINE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTING IN ELEVATED WINDS FOR
AREAS NEAR THE COASTLINE. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING WINDS
TO DROP TO UNDER 10 KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH SSI AND
ESPECIALLY SGJ MAY STILL SEE SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OR GUSTS JUST
OVER 10 KNOTS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. NOT QUITE AS BREEZY DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TONIGHT WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. READINGS FROM C-MAN SAUF1 SHOW
WINDS OF 21 KNOTS RECENTLY, AND BUOY 41117 SHOWED 5-7 FT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AND WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAINING JUST TO THE NORTH WILL AGAIN TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO INCREASE NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILD SEAS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLY REQUIRED.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK OF RIPS REST OF TODAY, AND ON THURSDAY A
MODERATE RISK WITH A HIGH RISK FOR NORTHEAST FL. FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, RISK LIKELY ELEVATED AGAIN AT MOD-HIGH.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
COASTAL WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY ABOUT 1.7 TO 2.1 FT MHHW
TODAY. MINOR FLOODING IS IN THIS RANGE AND ONLY SLIGHT LOWERING OF
PEAK WATER LEVELS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREFORE, HAVE
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY AFTN. THE AREA WHERE WE COULD
EASE OFF THE MINOR FLOODING CRITERIA IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST GA, MAINLY GLYNN COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS WE BARELY
MET CRITERIA THERE THIS MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 60 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 68 84 71 84 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 67 86 68 87 / 0 0 0 20
SGJ 72 85 73 86 / 0 10 10 30
GNV 64 89 66 90 / 0 10 0 10
OCF 70 87 68 88 / 0 20 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ124-125-
132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ452-454-472-
474.
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