941
FXUS62 KJAX 120142
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
942 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AT COASTAL LOCATIONS ON FRI
..HAZARDOUS MARINE & BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FL COAST...
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 943 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1029
MILLIBARS) OVER QUEBEC, WITH THIS FEATURE DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CLOSER
TO OUR REGION, A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN FL, WITH WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE (1020 MILLIBARS) SPRAWLING
ACROSS THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
ALOFT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, WITH WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE, RIDGING WAS LOCATED OVER TEXAS AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR
MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA, WITH PWAT VALUES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 - 1.25 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES WERE LOCATED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTHEAST FL, WHERE
VALUES WERE BETWEEN 1.25 - 1.75 INCHES. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS ABOVE 500 MILLIBARS (AROUND 20,000 FEET) PER THE EVENING
SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE AT THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION, WITH THIS FLOW ADVECTING A
VEIL OF MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH SOME POCKETS
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY. OTHERWISE, MARINE STRATOCUMULUS THAT WAS
STREAMING ONSHORE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. TEMPERATURES AT 01Z WERE MOSTLY IN THE
70-75 RANGE. DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 AT
COASTAL LOCATIONS.
MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST
OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGHING
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF MARINE STRATOCUMULUS FOR
COASTAL LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE OVERNIGHT, AND FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD APPROACH THE FLAGLER COUNTY COAST TOWARDS
SUNRISE. A LIGHT BREEZE WILL PERSIST AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, KEEPING
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 60S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MAINTAINING BREEZY NNE WINDS AND TIGHTENING THE
LOCAL COASTAL TROUGH. ROUNDS OF COASTAL SHOWERS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE
IN THE NE FLOW MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE AND INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING. LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR
INTO INLAND SE GA AS AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S IN SHARP CONTRAST TO DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ALONG THE NE FL COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID-UPPER 80S INLAND. A
GRADIENT OF LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOW-MID 60S OVER INLAND SE
GA/SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOW 70S AT THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE
SE US COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW
OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON THE PATH THIS LOW WILL TAKE WHETHER IT LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS OR LIFTS NORTH UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID-WEEK.
NNE FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN US AND THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SE US COAST. THE PATTERN
OF COASTAL SHOWERS SHIFTING ONSHORE TO THE NE FL COAST AND
REMAINING RELATIVELY DRY INLAND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TOWARD MID-WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S AT THE COAST AND WARM INLAND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 2,000 - 3,000 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AT SGJ. MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AT SGJ AFTER 14Z, WHERE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GRADUALLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE MAINTAINED A PROB30
GROUP AT SGJ FOR MVFR CEILINGS DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH THE CRG AND JAX TERMINALS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INDICATE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN VICINITY SHOWER COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUD COVER WILL OTHERWISE INCREASE AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS
ON FRIDAY, BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS DURING THE PREDAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY BY 13Z, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 943 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE
WEDGING DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
SHARPENING TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CREATE
STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY, WITH CAUTION LEVEL
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SEAS OF 3-4 FEET BOTH NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE
TONIGHT WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SEAS
PEAKING IN THE 5-7 FOOT RANGE THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS
THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS, ELEVATED SEAS, AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
PLACE FOR OUR AREA.
RIP CURRENTS / BEACH EROSION: STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL
BUILD BREAKER HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FEET AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH 2-4 FOOT BREAKERS EXPECTED AT THE SOUTHEAST
GA BEACHES. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES ON FRIDAY, WITH A HIGHER END MODERATE RISK
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. THESE BREAKERS
WILL BUILD DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 6 FEET AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND AROUND 4 FEET
AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. BUILDING AND INCREASINGLY ROUGH SURF
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA
BEACHES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINOR BEACH EROSION CAN
BE EXPECTED AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE, WITH MODERATE BEACH EROSION
POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 943 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
TRAPPED TIDES WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND ITS TRIBUTARIES
WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RESULTING IN MINOR
FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. NUISANCE-TYPE FLOODING OF
DOCKS, BOAT RAMPS, OVER-TOPPING OF SOME SEA WALLS/BULKHEADS, AND
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING ROADS CAN BE EXPECTED. WATER LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 1 - 1.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER
(MHHW) AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS THIS WEEKEND POTENTIALLY RAISING LEVELS TO 1.5 - 2
FEET ABOVE MHHW BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY (ICCW) WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY, WITH
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND, AS WATER
LEVELS GENERALLY RISE TO 1.5 - 2 FEET ABOVE MHHW AROUND TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL MOSTLY CREATE NUISANCE TYPE OF FLOODING IN
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS.
WE HAVE THUS EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND ICCW, AS WELL AS WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
AND ITS TRIBUTARIES, THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
ADDITIONAL EXTENSIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 88 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 71 83 71 82 / 0 10 20 20
JAX 69 85 71 84 / 0 10 10 40
SGJ 73 85 73 83 / 10 30 30 60
GNV 67 89 68 87 / 0 10 0 20
OCF 69 88 70 86 / 0 20 0 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ125-132-
137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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