747
FXUS62 KJAX 121139
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
739 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
INCREASINGLY BREEZY ENE WINDS TODAY WITH SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS
AND A LOW (<20%) OF A THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH
OF A ST. AUGUSTINE TO OCALA LINE. MAIN HAZARDS TODAY INCREASING
INCREASING RIP CURRENT RISK (HIGH RISK FOR ALL LOCAL BEACHES),
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FOR NE FL AROUND HIGH TIDES AND MARINE
CONDITIONS WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINED BEGINNING LATE
AFTERNOON.
TRENDING A LITTLE WARMER TODAY ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS NEARING 90
(GENERALLY WEST OF I-75) WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING THE
COAST COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION, WHILE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FL AND
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL RENEW A
SURGE OF NE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES, BEACHFRONT AND I-95 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES AS FAR
INLAND AS GAINESVILLE TO JACKSONVILLE, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO PALATKA AND POINT TO
THE SE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS FOR
ST. JOHNS, PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED, MAINLY FOR COASTAL FLAGLER
COUNTY, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. SKY COVER WILL RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES OVER
INLAND AREAS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE NE FL COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WIDER RANGE OF MAX TEMPS FROM
THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90F OVER FAR INLAND AREAS OF SE GA/NE FL TO
ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AT 5-10 MPH INLAND AND
15-25G30-35 MPH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS, BUT STILL EXPECT
TO SEE MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 60S INLAND AND LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THE NE WIND SURGE DOWN THE
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD PEAK JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ENDS UP BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SOUTHWARD FROM THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE LAND BASED AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SATURDAY, AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND
SOUTH ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM VA INTO SC WITH THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH CLOSING OFF BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AS THE STRONG
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW
OVER THE VICINITY OF THE GA AND SC COASTAL WATERS WILL PROVIDE LIFT
AND ENHANCE LOCAL COASTAL SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE PRODUCING MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE NE FL COAST SOUTH OF THE JAX BEACHES
INTO THE SOUTHERN ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL. ALONG
WITH SHOWERS, EMBEDDED ISOLATED T'STORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NNE WILL REFOCUS TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH A DRIER, SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS FILTERING OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND SE GA NORTH AND WEST OF
US-84 WHERE SUNNY SKIES WILL ABOUND WHILE DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S, SHARPLY CONTRASTING WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 ALONG
THE NE FL COAST. INVERTED TROUGHING NEAR THE GULF STREAM UNDER THE
CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL CREATE A TIGHTENED LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS THE HIGH REFORMS MORE TO THE NORTH WITH BREEZY WINDS 15-25 MPH
ALONG THE NE FL COAST AT THE COAST GUSTING AT TIME TO 30-35 MPH. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S AT THE COAST AND WARM INLAND TO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
SATURDAY NIGHT, COASTAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE WILL PERSIST AND CONTINUE
TO DRIFT ONSHORE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE FL COAST
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN BEFORE DRYING WEST OF THE
RIVER. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AWAY FROM THE COAST INTO SE GA, EXPECT A
GRADIENT OF LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM LOW 60S OVER INLAND SE GA
AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOW 70S AT THE COAST. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE BREEZY COASTAL WINDS 15-20 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE INLAND TO 10-15 MPH.
SUNDAY, THE CLOSED MID TO UPPER TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE AREA WILL
BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER QUEBEC EXITS OFF THE NE US COAST, FAILING TO PICK UP THE
CLOSED LOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE BASED WEAK COASTAL LOW
TO HOVER A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST TO OUR NE.
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE APPALACHIANS, THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAINED TIGHT
WITH NNE WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT THE NE FL COAST
RELAXING TO AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH OVER INLAND NE FL
AND 10-15 MPH OVER INLAND SE GA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY NEAR
THE COAST WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN TOWARDS HIGHWAY 301 WHILE STAYING MOSTLY DRY
NORTH AND WEST INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
SUNDAY NIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DRIFT ONTO THE THE BEACHFRONT
OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH LESS FREQUENCY COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 AT
THE NE FL COAST AND COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG I-95 WITH LOW
60S FURTHER INLAND ALONG I-10 INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH
OVER MUCH OF INLAND SE GA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NORTHEAST
WITH A GRADUAL EASING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE COASTAL
LOW DRIFTS NORTH AND EAST SLOWLY EAST OF THE DELMARVA WITH RIDGING
ALOFT IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS STAYING PAT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. LOCALLY, THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
COASTAL SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE THE COAST THAT DRY OUT LARGELY BEFORE
REACHING THE HIGHWAY 301 TO I-75 CORRIDORS. WINDS FROM THE NE WILL
CONTINUE BREEZY AT THE COAST 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH THROUGH
TUESDAY AND DIMINISH MORE TO THE 10-15 MPH RANGE LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AS
HIGHS REACH ONLY THE LOW/MID 80S AT THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S
INLAND. LOWS WILL ALSO STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
DRIER AIR INLAND WITH MID 60S FOR SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE FL COASTLINE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
NNW WINDS 6-8 KTS THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
13-15Z. WINDS VEER NNE TO ENE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS WITH INLAND GUSTS 18-22 KTS AND
COASTAL GUSTS NEAR 22-25 KTS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS,
ALTHOUGH ADJUSTED ALL TERMINALS TO VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
(10-15) OF MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AT SGJ WITH
PASSING SHOWERS AND WILL ADD TEMPO GROUPS BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS, BUT FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH VCSH AFTER 16Z. TONIGHT, WIND
MAGNITUDE AND GUSTS DECREASE AFTER 00Z, WITH BACKING TO NNE ONCE
AGAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE A NE FL COASTAL TERMINALS INCLUDING SGJ WHERE VCSH AND
SCT020 WAS ADVERTISED AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TODAY, WITH THIS FEATURE WEDGING
DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MEANWHILE,
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING TO
THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS DURING THE
WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CREATE STRENGTHENING
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MAY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, KEEPING BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, ELEVATED SEAS, AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FOR OUR AREA.
RIP CURRENTS: RENEWED SURGE OF NE WINDS WILL BRING HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENT TO ALL NE FL/SE GA BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SURF/BREAKERS SLOWLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE 4-6 FT RANGE BY THE
WEEKEND TIME FRAME, BUT STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DURING EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE NE FL
BEACHFRONT AND ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE RENEWED
SURGE OF NE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOME OF THE COASTAL FLOOD GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD FROM FERN BEACH
ALONG THE SE GA COASTLINE THIS WEEKEND, BUT FOR TODAY (FRIDAY)
EXPECT THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN PLACE WILL HOLD WITH
PEAK HIGH TIDES AROUND 1.5 TO 2.0 FT ABOVE MHHW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 89 62 86 60 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 84 69 82 69 / 10 20 20 20
JAX 86 69 85 67 / 20 20 40 20
SGJ 85 72 83 72 / 40 30 60 40
GNV 89 67 88 66 / 20 10 20 10
OCF 88 67 86 68 / 30 10 30 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ125-132-
137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.
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