237
FXUS62 KJAX 121802
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
202 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL UNDER PASSING MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AT THE COAST, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING SSW ACROSS ST. JOHNS
AND FLAGLER COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON, COASTAL GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL CONTINUE UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S WHILE INLAND HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL FOCUS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TOWARD PALATKA AND THE OCALA NF
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH A LOW CHANCE (<15%) OF A THUNDERSTORM.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY < 0.25 INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER
END POTENTIAL UP TO 1 INCHES FOR COASTAL ST. JOHNS AND FLAGLER
COUNTIES TONIGHT BASED OFF LATEST NBM GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RAINFALL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE,
ESPECIALLY FOR FLAGLER COUNTY WHERE THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER
TIDES AND RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO POOR DRAINAGE, ESPECIALLY NEAR
HIGH TIDES.
TONIGHT, WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS STRENGTHEN AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDGES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED NNE WINDS AT THE
COAST WITH PASSING COASTAL SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHEAST GA I-95 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST FL ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND COASTAL CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A
LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 60S WELL INLAND TO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TOWARD THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF DURING THE BACK HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AS ROUNDS OF COASTAL SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER LOCATIONS PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE JAX METRO TOWARDS FLAGLER COUNTY, WITH
HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TOWARDS FLAGLER COUNTY. AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE ONSHORE, SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ONCE DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS TO NEAR ITS PEAK DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING BREEZY WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE
ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO WANE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE NOW CLOSED LOW SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST. DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO NEAR NIL FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS OF
SE GA AND TOWARDS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION IN NE FL THIS
WEEKEND.
DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL RANGE IN THE 80S, WITH COOLER
TEMPS ALONG THE COAST AS THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN COOL
MARINE AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S OVER INLAND SE
GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION, UPPER 60S FOR INLAND NE FL AND
WARMER LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
WITH THE START OF THE NEW WEEK, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST, LEADING TO WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WIDENS. THE
PATTERN OF COASTAL SHOWERS AND NEAR NIL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FOR INLAND LOCATIONS OF SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION OF NE
FL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURE-WISE, HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF US-301 AND TOWARDS THE
COAST, WITH LOCATIONS WEST OF US-301 IN THE UPPER 80S WITH SOME
SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND THE LOW 70S ALONG
COAST LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS WERE IMPACTING SSI, CRG, SGJ AND JAX WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS UNDER GUSTY NE WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS OF
18-25 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WILL CONTINUE NEAR
SGJ. AFTER 00Z, NNE WINDS CONTINUE BUT MAGNITUDES DECREASE INLAND
INTO THE 5-10 KT RANGE WHILE COASTAL TERMINALS RANGE IN THE 8-12
KT RANGE. COASTAL SHOWERS INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH 12Z
WITH MVFR CELLING RESTRICTION RISK, AND CONTINUED WITH VCSH AND
SCT-BKN020-030. AFTER 12Z, STRONGER NE WINDS WITH GUSTS NEARING 30
KTS DEVELOP AT SGJ THROUGH 18Z WITH VCSH AND PREVAILING MVFR
CEILINGS. ADVERTISED PREVAILING VFR FOR OTHER TERMINALS FOR NOW
AFTER 06Z AS ELEVATED NNE WINDS WILL LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL AT
VQQ.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. WAVES
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND SUPPORTS A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK FOR ALL LOCAL BEACHES, WHICH IS HEADLINED THROUGH
SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY. RIP CURRENT RISK
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK AS THE
ONSHORE NORTHERLY WIND STRENGTH WEAKENS.
HIGH SURF: SURF WILL BUILD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH BREAKERS
STILL FORECAST TO NEAR 7 FT ALONG THE ST. JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTY
COASTS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY SHIFTS WILL MONITOR IF DUVAL NEEDS TO
BE INCLUDED. SURF SUBSIDES INTO THE 4-6 FT BREAKER RANGE SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY FOR MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IMPACTS WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE STRENGTHENING NE WINDS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO BE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LOCATIONS REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON (SATURDAY) AROUND AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES WITH LESS THAN A
10% CHANCE OF REACHING MODERATE FLOODING LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE MOST
COASTAL LOCATIONS COULD PEAK BETWEEN 2-2.2 FT MHHW DATUM WITH THE
ICWW AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5-2 FT MHHW DATUM
WITH THE SATURDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
AGAIN REACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AGAIN SUNDAY, WITH LOWER PEAK
VALUES COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS WINDS LESSON. PERSISTENT ONSHORE
WINDS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL TRAP TIDES AND CAUSE
A 'REVERSE FLOW' EVENT IN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER CAUSING AN EXTENSION
OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 86 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 71 82 70 82 / 10 20 30 20
JAX 69 84 68 84 / 10 30 30 40
SGJ 73 83 72 83 / 20 50 50 50
GNV 67 87 66 87 / 0 10 10 30
OCF 68 87 68 86 / 0 20 10 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ125-132-137-
138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454-
470-472-474.
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