165
FXUS62 KJAX 130512
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
112 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE SE US COASTLINE INTO THE
LOCAL NE FL/SE GA AREA, WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND TRACK SLOWLY
NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE LOCAL
NOR'EASTER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH RAINFALL CHANCES
ALONG THE NE FL COASTAL AREAS, MAINLY SOUTH OF JAX AND AS FAR
INLAND AS PALATKA, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE ST. JOHNS AND
FLAGLER COUNTY COASTLINES WITH A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED
STORMS AT TIMES. THIS PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS
TODAY WILL INCREASE N TO NE WINDS TO 25G40 MPH ALONG THE NE FL
BEACHFRONT LOCATIONS AND HAVE POSTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NE FL
COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM TODAY, WHILE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SE GA COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN WITH N TO NE WINDS AT 20G35 MPH, JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS, AND N TO NE WINDS AT 15G25-30 MPH OVER THE REST OF INLAND
NE FL/SE GA AREAS THROUGH TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID SEPTEMBER RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO MIDDLE 80S FROM THE I-95 TO US 301
CORRIDOR, THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR FAR INLAND AREAS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER INLAND AREAS AFTER SUNSET TO
5-10 MPH WITH LOW TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND 60F ACROSS INLAND SE GA
AND LOWER/MIDDLE 60S OVER INLAND NE FL, WHILE BREEZY TO NEAR WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS HOLDING MIN
TEMPS CLOSER TO 70F TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SUNDAY, THE CLOSED MID TO UPPER TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE AREA WILL
BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER QUEBEC EXITS OFF THE NE US COAST, FAILING TO PICK UP THE
CLOSED LOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE BASED WEAK COASTAL LOW
TO LINGER TO OUR NE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STICKS TO THE NORTH OVER
THE APPALACHIANS AND LET THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN
TIGHT BRINGING NNE WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT THE
NE FL COAST RELAXING TO AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH OVER
INLAND NE FL AND 10-15 MPH OVER INLAND SE GA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY NEAR THE COAST WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
ACROSS THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN TOWARDS HIGHWAY 301 WHILE STAYING
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY NORTH AND WEST INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA INTO THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY.
SUNDAY NIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DRIFT ONTO THE NE FL COAST
OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH LESS FREQUENCY COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 ALONG
THE BANKS OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND THE LOW 70S AT THE NE FL COAST
AND COOL FURTHER INLAND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER INLAND NE FL
AND THE LOW 60S OVER INLAND SE GA.
MONDAY, THE CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH AND WEST ONTO
THE CAROLINA COAST AS RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL INCH ITS
WAY FROM THE GULF STREAM BEYOND THE GA WATERS TOWARDS THE CAROLINA
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME AS THE
LOW POSITIONS MORE NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. OVERALL LESS COASTAL
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED T'STORM OVER THE NE FL COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN DRYING OUT BEFORE REACHING BEYOND HIGHWAY 301 DUE TO TOO MUCH
DRY AIR INLAND. THE NNE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN OVER THE WEEKEND
AT THE COAST 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND 10-15 MPH INLAND. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WEST OF I-95.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, WARM TO THE MID 80S ALONG I-95 AND INTO THE UPPER 80S
FURTHER INLAND BEYOND THE ST JOHNS RIVER IN NE FL AND HIGHWAY 301
IN SE GA.
MONDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH ONLY ISOLATED COASTAL
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS THAT WILL MOSTLY STAY OFFSHORE EXCEPT FOR
FLAGLER COUNTY SOUTHWARD. LOWS WILL TUMBLE INTO THE MID 60S FOR
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS, THE UPPER 60S ALONG I-95 AND THE LOW 70S
AT THE NE FL COAST WITH COASTAL WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NORTHEAST
WITH A GRADUAL EASING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE COASTAL
LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD OFF OF THE EAST COAST AND ONLY WEAK COASTAL
TROUGHING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN ITS WAKE WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL LET DRY SUBSIDENT AIR TO
FLOW IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A MORE MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL OCCASIONALLY BRING IN
ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY, AN UPSTREAM
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE
OH VALLEY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE EASTERN GULF LIFTING NE
IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL LIFT A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD ALONG THE FL PENINSULA AND SPREAD MORE
SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL RETURNING
TO OUR AREA. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME MORE ENE 10-15
MPH AT THE COAST AND 5-10 MPH INLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
AT THE COAST, BUT WARM TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INLAND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LOW 90S AGAIN OVER INLAND SE GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO DRIER AIR INLAND WITH MID 60S FOR SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE FL COASTLINE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS. MARINE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS
SUNRISE AT SGJ, SSI AND CRG, WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD SGJ BEFORE 13Z AND THEN THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS
BEFORE 15Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
MORNING AT SSI, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INDICATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS MAY BEGIN
TO IMPACT SGJ DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, AND WE PLACED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM 16Z-20Z. CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS ON SATURDAY WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY COVERAGE. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY AT GNV AND SSI, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS
TOWARDS 19Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND
10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AT SGJ, WITH SPEEDS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY AROUND
5 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
TOWARDS SUNRISE, AND SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE,
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY AT SGJ
BY 13Z AND AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY ELSEWHERE BEFORE 15Z. SPEEDS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 22Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND, WHILE COASTAL TROUGHING
REMAINS SITUATED OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS. MEANWHILE, A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CREATE STRENGTHENING NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS TODAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS
THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK,
KEEPING BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, ELEVATED SEAS, AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION.
RIP CURRENTS: STRONG NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SURF/BREAKERS BUILDING TO 4-6
FT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY LATER
TODAY AS SURF/BREAKERS MAY APPROACH 7 FEET.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DURING EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE NE FL
BEACHFRONT AND ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AS STRONG NE FLOW
CONTINUES. LATEST PETSS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SE GA AND NASSAU
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WILL ALSO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS
AROUND 2 FT MHHW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE TODAY
AND WILL POST COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FROM 11 AM TO
4 PM TODAY TO HANDLE THIS MORE BRIEF MINOR FLOOD EVENT. FOR NOW
PEAK HIGH TIDES ALONG THE NE FL COAST SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 2.5 FT
MHHW AND BELOW 2 FT MHHW IN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN, WITH ONLY
SOME LOCALLY MODERATE PEAK FLOOD LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON, SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UPGRADE WITH THIS PACKAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 88 60 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 82 69 82 69 / 10 30 20 10
JAX 85 67 85 66 / 20 20 30 10
SGJ 84 71 84 72 / 40 40 50 20
GNV 89 65 89 64 / 10 10 20 0
OCF 87 66 86 66 / 20 10 20 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ124.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ125-132-137-
138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454-
470-472-474.
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