147
FXUS62 KJAX 151121
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
721 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
NO UPDATES NEEDED ON THE FORECAST THIS MORNING, DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER MAY PUSH ONSHORE NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW (NEAR 10%) DUE TO THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER INLAND NE FL/SE GA ALONG WITH A
DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH PWATS AROUND 1
INCH OR LESS WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF NE
FL/SE GA WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND ALLOW
FOR BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, MAX TEMPS
WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER INLAND AREAS, WHILE BREEZY NE
WINDS AT 15G25 MPH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES AND MIDDLE 80S JUST
INLAND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS BOTH EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT/NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING WITH FALL
TO NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH VALUES INTO THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND LOWER 60S FOR INLAND NE FL AND
UPPER 60S FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. DAILY RECORD LOW VALUES
ARE IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION AT NIGHT, BUT WITH
THE COOLER TEMPS AND SOME WARMER INLAND WATERWAYS AND LAKES, SOME
STEAM FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE, BUT SHOULD BE VERY
LOCALIZED.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
PATTERN REMAINS OVERALL QUITE STAGNANT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE SURFACE,
SANDWICHED BETWEEN NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION, AND BENEATH A
NEARLY STATIONARY MID LEVEL CUT OFF LOW. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST UNDER THIS WEAK RIDGING TYPE OF REGIME, WITH A
BIT OF A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE CWA WILL
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN DRIER SIDE OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN PWATS UNDER
1.5 INCHES INTO THE AREA AND THEREFORE CONTINUE LITTLE TO NO RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. JUST SOME ISOLATED FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE FLOW DIRECTION
ALOFT DAILY, WITH MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND
AND LOW TO MID 80S INSIDE THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND
AND UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, A BIT MILDER
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND TO
LOW 70S BY THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SOME LAYER MOISTURE STARTS TO SURGE NORTHWARD BY LATE WEEK AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS NORTHWARD, MAKING IT ONLY
INTO ABOUT CENTRAL FL BY FRIDAY BEFORE RUNNING INTO YET ANOTHER
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US
AND INTO NORTH FL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RIDGING COMBINED
WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING OFF THE FL PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO
REINFORCE/REDEVELOP ANOTHER NORTHEASTERLY WIND EVENT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD INCLUDE CONCERNS FOR HAZARDS SUCH AS COASTAL
FLOODING, ROUGH SURF, BEACH EROSION, AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT
RISK. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM, ESPECIALLY INLAND, THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND NEAR NORMAL CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WILL
START TO TREND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AREA-WIDE FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS NORTHEAST FLOW WEAKENS BUT REMAINS ONSHORE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT SURGE OF STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS: LINGERING SWELLS AND MODERATE NE FLOW TODAY WILL
CONTINUE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WITH SURF/BREAKERS OF 3-5 FT,
WITH A LIKELY DROP TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY
WITH SURF/BREAKERS OF 2-4 FT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY DURING EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND SOME INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS ALONG THE NE FL
COASTAL COUNTIES FROM JAX SOUTHWARD THROUGH FLAGLER BEACH WITH
PEAK WATER LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 FT ABOVE MHHW RANGE.
LONGER RANGE WATER LEVEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS MAY CONTINUE IN THE
ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
DAILY RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES...
MON 9/15 TUE 9/16
JACKSONVILLE, FL (JAX) 62/1996 57/2001
CRAIG EXEC ARPT (CRG) 63/1996 60/2001
GAINESVILLE, FL (GNV) 60/1976 57/2001
ALMA, GEORGIA (AMG) 55/1968 52/1967
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 88 58 88 62 / 0 10 0 0
SSI 82 67 83 68 / 0 10 0 0
JAX 86 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 84 68 84 69 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 90 62 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 89 63 88 67 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ125-132-137-
138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...NONE.
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