576
FXUS62 KJAX 151806
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
206 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY,
CLIMATE...
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
PWATS ARE ESPECIALLY LOW FOR MID-SEPTEMBER, WITH GOES-19 DATA SHOWING
VALUES AROUND 0.75-1.0" ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GET A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
COAST, BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW. TONIGHT IT WILL BE RELATIVELY TOO DRY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TO SEE FOG FORMATION, ALTHOUGH NEAR I-75 SOME MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT PRE-DAWN. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP INTO THE 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
A RELATIVELY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD. A 500 MB LOW
CENTERED OVER THE NC AREA ON TUESDAY WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. THIS SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NC OUTER
BANKS WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST, WHILE LOCALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH PWAT VALUES MOSTLY BELOW 1.5 INCHES. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK TSTORM, BUT FOR MOST PART LOOKS RAIN-FREE
AND WILL THEREFORE KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. FOR TEMPS, HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST, WHILE WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY OWING TO A
SLIGHT RISE IN THICKNESSES DUE TO A SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION REGIME
FROM LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THE TROUGH LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTH. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S INLAND TO
70 OR LOWER 70S COAST. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM IS NOTED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA. WE
MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE INTO MAINLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR MARINE WATERS AND POSSIBLY OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTHWARD INTO
REGION. BUT, THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LARGELY
WILL STAY OUT OF OUR AREA WHILE SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, WE SEE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING A BIT FRIDAY AND DEFINITELY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE NORTH WHILE SOME
TROUGHING PERSISTS TO OUR SOUTH. THUS, A RETURN TO SOME COASTAL
SHOWERS LOOKS PROBABLE, ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT DETERIORATING SURF ZONE CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, AND
THE CONTINUATION AND EXPANSION OF TIDAL FLOODING TO COASTAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE CLIMO VALUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN
BEGIN TO TREND BACK DOWN TOWARD CLIMO WITH INCREASING CLOUD OVER
AND RAIN CHANCES FOR WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NORTHEAST FLOW WEAKENS
BUT REMAINS ONSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT SURGE OF
STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES TUESDAY AS SURF
DECREASES TO 2-4 FEET.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN, ICWW, AND ATLANTIC COAST IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING AREAS ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN MAY CONTINUE TO
REACH MINOR FLOODING DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
WE REACHED A LOW THIS MORNING AT JAX OF 60 DEGREES WITH THE PREVIOUS
RECORD 62 IN 1996, AND ALSO AT GNV OF 59 DEGREES WITH THE PREVIOUS
RECORD 60 IN 1976. RECORDS ON TUESDAY MAY BE OUT OF REACH GIVEN
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WHICH ARE GREATER THAN 3 DEG ABOVE THE
CURRENT RECORDS.
FOR THE DAILY RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AT
LOCAL CLIMATE SITES...
TUE 9/16
JACKSONVILLE, FL (JAX) 57/2001
CRAIG EXEC ARPT (CRG) 60/2001
GAINESVILLE, FL (GNV) 57/2001
ALMA, GEORGIA (AMG) 52/1967
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 58 88 62 89 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 67 83 68 85 / 10 0 0 0
JAX 63 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 68 84 69 87 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 62 90 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 63 88 67 89 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ125-132-137-
138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page