678
FXUS62 KJAX 152307
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
707 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT. COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS ARE FORECAST, WITH A DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR NIGHT. DUE TO THE COOLER AIR, COULD SEE A LITTLE FOG DEVELOP
INLAND NEAR WATERWAYS AND MORE MARSHY AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
A RELATIVELY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD. A 500 MB LOW
CENTERED OVER THE NC AREA ON TUESDAY WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. THIS SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NC OUTER
BANKS WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST, WHILE LOCALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH PWAT VALUES MOSTLY BELOW 1.5 INCHES. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK TSTORM, BUT FOR MOST PART LOOKS RAIN-FREE
AND WILL THEREFORE KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. FOR TEMPS, HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST, WHILE WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY OWING TO A
SLIGHT RISE IN THICKNESSES DUE TO A SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION REGIME
FROM LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THE TROUGH LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTH. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S INLAND TO
70 OR LOWER 70S COAST. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM IS NOTED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA. WE
MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE INTO MAINLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR MARINE WATERS AND POSSIBLY OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTHWARD INTO
REGION. BUT, THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LARGELY
WILL STAY OUT OF OUR AREA WHILE SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, WE SEE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING A BIT FRIDAY AND DEFINITELY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE NORTH WHILE SOME
TROUGHING PERSISTS TO OUR SOUTH. THUS, A RETURN TO SOME COASTAL
SHOWERS LOOKS PROBABLE, ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT DETERIORATING SURF ZONE CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, AND
THE CONTINUATION AND EXPANSION OF TIDAL FLOODING TO COASTAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE CLIMO VALUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN
BEGIN TO TREND BACK DOWN TOWARD CLIMO WITH INCREASING CLOUD OVER
AND RAIN CHANCES FOR WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY FOG THAT COULD LEAD TO A FEW RESTRICTIONS
TOWARD SUNRISE INLAND AT KVQQ AND KGNV.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NORTHEAST FLOW WEAKENS
BUT REMAINS ONSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT SURGE OF
STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES TUESDAY AS SURF
DECREASES TO 2-4 FEET.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN, ICWW, AND ATLANTIC COAST IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING AREAS ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN MAY CONTINUE TO
REACH MINOR FLOODING DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 61 88 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 69 83 67 85 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 66 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 70 85 69 87 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 64 90 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 65 89 67 89 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ125-132-137-
138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...NONE.
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