303
FXUS62 KJAX 160452
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1252 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY, CLIMATE...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND DRIER
THAN NORMAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT WITH PWATS AROUND AN
INCH THIS MORNING, THEN A SLIGHT MOISTENING THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES OR SO. OVERALL THIS WILL
LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH RAINFALL CHANCES STILL BELOW
10% WITH ONLY A BRIEF/ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS AT NIGHT, WITH WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS, AND EVEN SOME AROUND
90F TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND NE FL THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR RECORD
LOW TEMPS AROUND 60F STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER INLAND
AREAS, BUT NOT AS COOL LATE TONIGHT/AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S
INLAND AND AROUND 70F ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME
SHALLOW/PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT
SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN A DRY ONE AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL TAKE ITS TIME WEAKENING AND LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME HIGHER PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO
THE SOUTH WOBBLES NORTH, STILL EXPECTING IT TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE STILL IN PLACE. THE
WEAKENING/DEPARTING SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT ON THURSDAY, AND THEREFORE ONSHORE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO AROUND THE 5-10MPH RANGE EXCEPT WITH A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. THIS MAY
ALSO TAPER COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER A BIT AND
ALLOW SOME OF THE TRAPPED WATER TO START TO DRAIN - WILL CERTAINLY
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, THOUGH FOR THE TIME
BEING COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AT THIS TIME. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AS WELL, WITH
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 COMMON INLAND AND MID 80S BY THE COAST. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO THE LOW 70S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
LAYER MOISTURE MAKES SLIGHTLY MORE OF A JUMP THURSDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH NUDGES FURTHER NORTH, MAINLY
HAVING IMPACTS FOR SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF NORTHEAST FL. STILL
WILL BE ENOUGH OF LINGERING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT ANY
RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT GAINESVILLE TO
SAINT AUGUSTINE AND ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO INTO
INTERIOR NE FL AND SE GA. A SLIGHT TURN IN THE FLOW WILL ALSO BE
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT NUDGES NORTH, WITH MORE OF A DUE EASTERLY TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 5-10MPH INLAND AND AROUND 10-15MPH NEAR
THE COAST. VERY WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INLAND WITH HIGHS AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE 90 COMMON, CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT,
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE. ELSEWHERE, A
DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
INLAND TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH AND EAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES NOT GET MUCH FURTHER THAN
CENTRAL FL AROUND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US TOWARDS NORTH FL. THOUGH IT DOES
NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS EVENT, STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG
ENOUGH RIDGING COMBINES WITH DEVELOPING BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO INDUCE A NORTHEASTERLY WIND EVENT. BREEZY
FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT DETERIORATING SURF ZONE CONDITIONS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, AND THE CONTINUATION AND EXPANSION OF TIDAL FLOODING
TO COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES START THE PERIOD GENERALLY
ABOVE NORMAL, THOUGH TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT VQQ/GNV EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARDS SUNRISE.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AT REGIONAL TERMINALS WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST, AND AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH ONSHORE WINDS PICKING UP BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.
RIP CURRENTS: SOLID MODERATE RISK OF RIPS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SURF/BREAKERS SUBSIDE TO
2-3 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
AS THE NE FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, THIS
HAS ALLOWED THE INTER-COASTAL WATERWAY TO FALL BELOW MINOR FLOOD
STAGES ALONG THE NE FL COAST AND WILL DROP COASTAL ST. JOHNS AND
FLAGLER COUNTIES FROM THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WITH THE
OVERNIGHT UPDATE, BUT THE LINGERING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW HAS STILL
NOT ALLOWED THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN TO DRAIN OUT ENOUGH AND
MINOR FLOODING WITH PEAK HIGH TIDE STAGES AROUND 1.5 FT ABOVE MHHW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NOW, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED TIDAL FLOODING IN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF NE WINDS ON TRACK TO
PUSH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
DAILY RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES...
TUE 9/16
JACKSONVILLE, FL (JAX) 57/2001
CRAIG EXEC ARPT (CRG) 60/2001
GAINESVILLE, FL (GNV) 57/2001
ALMA, GEORGIA (AMG) 52/1967
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 62 90 65 / 10 10 0 0
SSI 83 68 85 71 / 10 10 0 0
JAX 88 65 90 69 / 10 0 0 0
SGJ 86 69 87 71 / 10 0 0 10
GNV 91 64 91 67 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 90 66 90 69 / 10 0 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ125-132-
137-325-633.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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