528
FXUS62 KJAX 110705
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
305 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- NOR'EASTER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. HIGHEST WATER LEVELS OF THE
FALL SEASON EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST, INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY, AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING FOR MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL NE FL COUNTIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GALE WARNING FOR ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
A LOCAL NOR'EASTER IS DEVELOPING INTO A "TRUE" NOR'EASTER THIS
MORNING AS A COASTAL SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE CIRCULATION ESTABLISHES BENEATH A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW, IT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE GULF STREAM,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE DEEPENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY, GIVEN THE UPPER
CUTOFF, ON EXACTLY HOW THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL FEATURES
WILL MEANDER TONIGHT. THIS CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES WITH SOME
MIXED-IN DRIZZLE TONIGHT. A NARROWED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 60S, WARMING ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
STRONG WINDS:
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTH, TURNING NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. STRONG GUSTS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING, WITH GUSTS AROUND 35−40 MPH
EXPECTED ALONG THE BEACHFRONT AND COASTAL AREAS. THESE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COASTLINE AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE ENTIRE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST. IT THEN CONTINUES
ONLY FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A
DECREASING WIND RESPONSE.
COASTAL FLOODING AND RAINFALL:
WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD
LEVELS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING WILL BE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
CONTRIBUTING TO THE FLOOD THREAT, STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT BANDS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED
FLOOD CONCERNS, MAINLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE, DUE TO THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING AND THESE
PROLONGED BANDS OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVERALL ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST WHERE UP TO AN
INCH COULD ACCUMULATE.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO TURN OFFSHORE TONIGHT, ALLOWING TIDAL LEVELS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO SUBSEQUENTLY DECREASE.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
PATTERN OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL COME TO AN END BY MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION FROM
OUT OF THE WEST, BRINGING GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND MILD
WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
RISE INTO THE MID 70S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR INLAND AREAS
AND IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE COASTLINE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS, MILDER WINDS, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LOW STRATUS CONTINUES AMID ONGOING COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CEILING IMPROVEMENTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON TO SCATTERED MVFR TO LOW- VFR ALTITUDES AS
THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WINDS BACK TO THE NNW. WAVES OF
SHOWERS PUSHING ONSHORE MAY LEAD TO LOW VISIBILITY AT TIMES,
GENERALLY IFR-TYPE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO EPISODES OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY AND GUST TO 20-30 KNOTS THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS START TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT.
MARINE
NOR'EASTER CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AS COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH
LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDWARD, TRAILING ALONG THE GULF STREAM. AS IT
DEEPENS, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND
GUSTS REACHING UP TO 45 KNOTS AND COMBINED SEAS AROUND 8 TO 12 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS DECREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL RELAX BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A
COLD FRONT TRAILING THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
WITH DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY.
ELEVATED SEAS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER OFFSHORE FOR THROUGH MONDAY. A
DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
HYDROLOGY
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST
AND THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO ONGOING
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING.
FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY: STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP WATER WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS
RIVER FROM JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD TO LAKE GEORGE. CONSEQUENTLY, IT
WILL TAKE SEVERAL TIDAL CYCLES FOR WATER LEVELS TO FALL BELOW
MODERATE/MINOR FLOOD STAGES (1.5−2.5 FT MHHW). THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE RIVER BASIN OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THESE TRAPPED TIDES.
FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST: THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
ONE MORE CYCLE OF MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERWARD, HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO MINOR FLOOD
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE BANDS OF RAIN THIS MORNING MAY
SLIGHTLY EXACERBATE TIDAL FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY,
THE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 60 76 58 / 20 30 20 10
SSI 74 62 76 63 / 40 40 20 10
JAX 76 62 78 62 / 30 20 20 10
SGJ 76 62 78 64 / 40 20 20 10
GNV 79 60 81 61 / 20 10 10 0
OCF 78 62 81 61 / 20 10 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ038-
124-125-138-225-233-333.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ038-124-125-
138-233-325-333-433-533-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-233-
333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-225-233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ132-137-325-
633.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-
166.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454-470-472-
474.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ452-454-470-472-474.
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